GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day -7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Death toll from: GERI 12 | Energy Risk Jun 15 — June 15, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-06-14. The brief covers 8 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: 0.
- 8 alerts considered from 2026-06-14.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€44.31/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
VIX
17.68 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
Brent Crude
$83.75/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-12
EU Gas Storage
44.70%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-06-14
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon exceeds 3,780 — health ministry | 5 | 1.6% | TASS World News |
| Trump says Israeli attacks on Beirut unjustified, puts Iran deal at risk | 5 | 4.4% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained; no regime currently classified.
- Contagion Status: Minimal contagion; EERI dropped significantly (Locked — free account), indicating reduced regional escalation spillover despite ongoing Middle East conflict.
- Risk Tone: Low, supported by stable GERI and declining EERI.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East conflict remains intense (high death toll, IRGC warnings), but spillover to Asia and Europe appears contained.
- Asia shows geopolitical concerns (India’s critical mineral dependence, US-India tensions), but no immediate energy market contagion detected.
- Europe’s gas storage rising (+0.40%), and TTF gas prices falling (-5.26%) indicate limited supply disruption risk from Middle East tensions.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €44.31/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 17.68 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $83.75/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 44.70% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Significant divergence between severe Middle East conflict alerts and declining EERI index and energy prices.
- Market pricing implies low probability of immediate supply disruption or escalation affecting global energy markets.
- Brent and TTF price drops suggest demand concerns or profit-taking rather than risk premium buildup.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite severe ongoing conflict in the Middle East, markets exhibit muted risk pricing with declining Brent and TTF prices and falling regional risk indices. This suggests current market consensus views the conflict as unlikely to cause immediate energy supply disruptions. The notable divergence between geopolitical alerts and market risk measures highlights market resilience or desensitization. However, IRGC warnings in the Strait of Hormuz and India’s critical mineral import dependence represent latent risks that could trigger rapid regime shifts if escalated. Traders should monitor these indicators closely, as the probability of a regime change remains modest but non-negligible. The current environment favors cautious positioning with readiness to adjust to rapid geopolitical developments.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -3.51% between recorded quotes; TTF -5.26% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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