GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Mother sues OpenAI: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Jun 13 — June 13, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-06-12. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-12.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.90/MWh
+0.30%
Source date: 2026-06-12
VIX
17.68 points
-1.76 points
Source date: 2026-06-12
Brent Crude
$86.80/bbl
-2.61%
Source date: 2026-06-12
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-12
EU Gas Storage
43.90%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-12
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mother sues OpenAI in US after daughter’s death linked to ChatGPT use | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
| China's Fusion Reactor on Track for Ignition by 2027, Threatening U.S. Lead | 5 | 20.8% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk environment with no abrupt regime shifts detected.
- Contagion Status: Global geopolitical tensions persist but show limited contagion into financial markets, as indicated by declining EERI and VIX.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High risk from Iran war negotiations and U.S. military oil movements (7 million bpd out of Persian Gulf). Risk contained regionally but impacts global oil flows.
- Russia/Ukraine: Continued infrastructure strikes and fuel rationing in Russia maintain regional energy stress but limited spillover to global markets due to alternative supply routes.
- Asia: China’s fusion reactor progress signals long-term energy technology competition but no immediate market impact.
- South America: Venezuela-Trinidad oil spill tensions add localized environmental risk but minimal global energy market contagion.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.90/MWh | +0.30% |
| VIX | 17.68 points | -1.76 points |
| Brent Crude | $86.80/bbl | -2.61% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 43.90% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite high geopolitical alerts, Brent crude price correction (-2.61%) suggests market pricing in risk de-escalation or oversupply concerns.
- Gas prices and storage levels show alignment, indicating market confidence in supply stability despite geopolitical tensions.
- VIX decline contrasts with persistent war alerts, signaling possible market complacency or risk discounting.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a high volume of severe geopolitical alerts, the energy market is currently pricing in a stabilizing risk environment. Brent crude’s 2.6% decline amid ongoing conflicts suggests market participants anticipate either containment or resolution of key energy conflict flashpoints, particularly in the Middle East and Russia. EU gas storage at 43.9% capacity provides a significant buffer against supply shocks, reflected in stable TTF gas prices. However, the probability of escalation remains non-negligible, especially from Russia’s retaliatory strikes and Middle East tensions, warranting close monitoring. The divergence between persistent geopolitical risk signals and declining market volatility (VIX) indicates potential complacency, which could lead to rapid repricing if risk events materialize. Traders should maintain flexible positioning with hedges in LNG and storage sectors while watching diplomatic developments closely.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.61% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.30% between recorded quotes; GERI 18 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.