GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
OPEC Oil Output: GERI 18 | Energy Risk Jun 12 — June 12, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-06-11. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-11.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.76/MWh
-7.95%
Source date: 2026-06-11
VIX
19.44 points
-2.78 points
Source date: 2026-06-11
Brent Crude
$89.13/bbl
-6.18%
Source date: 2026-06-11
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-11
EU Gas Storage
43.60%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-06-11
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC Oil Output Lowest Since at Least 2000 as US Blockade Squeezes Iran, Reuters Survey Shows - U.S. News - Money | 5 | 16.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
| Drone strikes on central Sudanese city kill up to 23: NGO | 5 | 4.8% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained; no regime classification triggered despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Elevated regional tensions in Middle East and Europe, but limited contagion to global energy markets due to offsetting factors.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 18
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High conflict intensity from tanker strikes and US sanctions on Iran, elevating regional risk but contained by global supply buffers.
- Europe: ECB rate hikes amid Iran war and booming EV market reflect financial tightening and energy transition pressures, with moderate risk spillover to energy markets.
- Global: Sudan conflict adds humanitarian risk but limited direct energy market impact.
- Spillover Summary: Middle East geopolitical risk is primary contagion source; Europe’s financial tightening adds secondary pressure; global impact muted by diversified supply.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.76/MWh | -7.95% |
| VIX | 19.44 points | -2.78 points |
| Brent Crude | $89.13/bbl | -6.18% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 43.60% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- EERI up Locked — free account points signals heightened event risk, yet Brent and TTF prices fell sharply (~Locked — free account-Locked — free account), indicating market pricing in demand destruction and supply resilience.
- VIX decline contrasts with rising event risk, suggesting market underestimates geopolitical volatility persistence.
- EUR/USD slight decline aligns with ECB rate hike and geopolitical uncertainty but muted reaction implies cautious positioning.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a stable overall risk regime, the sharp rise in event risk (EERI Locked — free account) driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions is not fully reflected in energy prices or volatility indices. The market appears to price in demand destruction and robust storage buffers, particularly in Europe, which is cushioning price spikes. However, the risk of escalation remains material, with a Locked — free account-Locked — free account probability of regime shift in the near term. Traders should watch tanker strike frequency and OPEC output closely, as these are key drivers for potential rapid repricing. The divergence between elevated event risk and declining volatility suggests complacency that could be corrected swiftly if conflict intensifies. European gas storage trends and ECB monetary policy will also be critical in shaping short-term energy market dynamics.
Key Quantitative Relationships:
- EERI Locked — free account correlates with ~Locked — free account-Locked — free account price declines in Brent and TTF, indicating demand concerns outweigh supply fears currently.
- EU gas storage +0.2% supports a 7.95% TTF price drop, highlighting storage’s moderating effect on prices.
- VIX Locked — free account despite EERI rise signals potential underpricing of geopolitical risk by ~Locked — free account.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -6.32% between recorded quotes; TTF -7.95% between recorded quotes; GERI 18 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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