GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day 1 · 7 day 5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran ATTACK UAE: GERI 17 | Energy Risk May 29 — May 29, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-05-28. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: 1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-28.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€47.03/MWh
+2.19%
Source date: 2026-05-28
VIX
15.74 points
-0.55 points
Source date: 2026-05-28
Brent Crude
$93.31/bbl
-1.82%
Source date: 2026-05-28
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-28
EU Gas Storage
39.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-28
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran ATTACK UAE VISUALS Emerges: Smoke Rises After Iran Drone Strike on UAE Oil Hub | NewsX - Dailyhunt | 5 | 8.0% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| US says Iran launched ‘egregious ceasefire violation,’ testing fragile truce | 5 | 5.3% | Politico Europe |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone maintained despite heightened geopolitical alerts.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; regional Middle East tensions contained, no broad market panic.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Primary risk source; Iran’s aggressive actions near Strait of Hormuz elevate regional supply risk.
- Europe: War-related alerts (Ukraine conflict, heatwave) add localized stress but no significant spillover to energy markets yet.
- Asia: Mention of US support to India for energy diversification indicates strategic shifts but limited immediate market impact.
- Russia: Retaliatory strike warnings keep risk elevated but contained within military conflict zones.
- Global: Guatemala denial of US strike cooperation reduces risk of wider conflict expansion.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €47.03/MWh | +2.19% |
| VIX | 15.74 points | -0.55 points |
| Brent Crude | $93.31/bbl | -1.82% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 39.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk signals (GERI) up but Brent crude down: Suggests market pricing in limited supply disruption or offsetting demand weakness.
- TTF gas up with EERI down: Indicates regional demand-driven price support despite broader economic risk easing.
- VIX declining despite conflict alerts: Market complacency or confidence in conflict containment.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite recent high-profile geopolitical alerts centered on Iran’s aggressive actions near critical oil infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz, market risk appetite remains subdued as reflected in the low risk tone and declining volatility index. Brent crude’s 1.8% decline amid these tensions suggests that traders currently price in limited immediate supply disruption or are factoring in demand concerns possibly linked to global economic signals. Conversely, European gas prices rose over 2%, supported by a record heatwave and ongoing Ukraine conflict risks, underscoring regional demand-driven price sensitivity. The divergence between rising geopolitical risk indices and mixed asset price responses highlights a market balancing act between conflict risk and economic fundamentals. The probability of significant supply disruption remains moderate (~20%), with a 25% chance of regime shift to medium risk if Iran’s actions escalate. Portfolio strategies should emphasize gas-exposed sectors and power utilities in Europe while maintaining hedges against potential oil price spikes should Middle East tensions intensify. Close monitoring of Strait of Hormuz activity and US military support to Ukraine is critical for early detection of risk regime shifts.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.76% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.19% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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