GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day -5 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 12 | Energy Risk May 30 — May 30, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-05-29. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: -5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-29.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.90/MWh
-2.40%
Source date: 2026-05-29
VIX
15.32 points
-0.42 points
Source date: 2026-05-29
Brent Crude
$91.99/bbl
-2.35%
Source date: 2026-05-29
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-29
EU Gas Storage
39.70%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-29
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Warns Ships Ignoring Orders in Hormuz May Be Treated as Threats | 5 | 7.8% | gCaptain Maritime |
| World’s Top Economic Bodies Warn Hormuz Disruptions Are Draining Oil Inventories at Record Pace | 5 | 7.6% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone after recent volatility
- Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Europe persist, but global market reaction shows signs of easing
- Summary: Despite multiple high-severity war-related alerts (Hormuz threats, Lebanon casualties, Iran-UAE escalation), risk indices suggest partial market digestion and stabilization. Energy prices corrected sharply, reflecting mixed supply-demand signals.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets:
- Direct impact via Hormuz Strait threats and UAE oil zone strike causing transient supply fears
- Spillover into European energy security via increased Ukraine conflict risk and EU microchip supply chain controls
- Europe → Global:
- Ukraine conflict escalation increases defense demand and geopolitical risk premium
- EU’s emergency microchip mechanism signals broader supply chain vulnerability, indirectly pressuring industrial energy demand
- North America → Global:
- Permian Basin gas oversupply narrative weakening, but Florida natural gas premium signals localized deliverability constraints, potentially influencing US LNG export pricing
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD (Daily % Change vs Risk Indices)
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.90/MWh | -2.40% |
| VIX | 15.32 points | -0.42 points |
| Brent Crude | $91.99/bbl | -2.35% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 39.70% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing Gap:
- EERI surged Locked — free account, indicating rising event risk, but Brent and TTF gas prices fell ~Locked — free account, showing market discounting of immediate supply disruption
- VIX declined marginally, suggesting equity markets perceive geopolitical risk as contained or priced in
- Divergence implies markets expect short-term conflict escalation without sustained energy supply shock
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS (7-day outlook)
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION: EnergyRiskIQ Analyst Note
Yesterday’s data reveals a complex risk environment where geopolitical event risk (EERI Locked — free account) sharply contrasts with declining global energy risk perception (GERI Locked — free account) and falling energy prices. The market appears to price in heightened conflict risk as episodic rather than structural, supported by US deterrence signals in Hormuz and incremental EU supply chain safeguards. However, persistent Middle East violence and Ukraine’s military requests maintain elevated baseline risk. The divergence between risk indices and asset prices suggests cautious market optimism but warrants close monitoring of conflict escalation triggers and supply chain disruptions. Energy portfolios should emphasize flexibility and hedging against episodic shocks, while watching for shifts in regime classification that could rapidly alter risk premia.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.41% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.40% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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