GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day 4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Shrinking Oil Inventories: GERI 16 | Energy Risk May 28 — May 28, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-05-27. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-27.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.02/MWh
-3.38%
Source date: 2026-05-27
VIX
16.29 points
-0.72 points
Source date: 2026-05-27
Brent Crude
$94.98/bbl
-4.35%
Source date: 2026-05-27
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-27
EU Gas Storage
39.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-27
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrinking Oil Inventories Raise Fears of Prolonged Energy Crisis | 5 | 20.9% | OilPrice.com |
| Trump Threatens Oman as Hormuz Deal Remains Elusive | 5 | 11.3% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite recent geopolitical escalations.
- Contagion Status: Contained; regional conflicts in Middle East and Russia show limited immediate spillover to Western markets.
- Overall Risk Level: Moderate, with downward pressure on energy prices reflecting easing market concerns.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe:
- War-related disruptions in Strait of Hormuz and Iran sanctions pressure oil supply, reflected in rising EERI.
- Europe’s shrinking oil inventories heighten sensitivity but are partially offset by SPR releases to California, limiting contagion.
- Russia → Europe:
- Ukrainian conflict and air defense shortages increase risk perception but have not triggered market-wide energy supply shocks.
- North America:
- Minimal contagion; Canada’s choice of Swedish early warning planes signals strategic decoupling from US military tech but limited energy market impact.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.02/MWh | -3.38% |
| VIX | 16.29 points | -0.72 points |
| Brent Crude | $94.98/bbl | -4.35% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 39.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- EERI up Locked — free account signals rising event risk, yet Brent and TTF prices fall ~Locked — free account and Locked — free account respectively, indicating market discounting of prolonged supply disruption.
- Suggests market expects SPR releases and inventory management to buffer supply shocks.
- GERI decline (-3) contrasts with event risk increase, reflecting market’s reduced geopolitical panic.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a rise in event-driven risk (EERI Locked — free account) due to intensified Middle East conflict and related supply chain disruptions, market pricing in Brent and TTF gas show a significant pullback (~Locked — free account and ~Locked — free account), reflecting confidence in strategic reserves and inventory management to mitigate immediate supply shocks. The decline in GERI (Locked — free account) supports a stabilizing geopolitical risk perception, suggesting markets are differentiating between event risk and systemic panic. Aluminium price spikes represent a secondary cost channel impacting European industrial and solar sectors, warranting close monitoring for inflationary spillovers. The risk regime remains stabilizing with a moderate probability of escalation, emphasizing the need for adaptive portfolio strategies sensitive to diplomatic progress and conflict dynamics.
---
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -4.32% between recorded quotes; TTF -3.38% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.