GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Petrobras or APA:: GERI 19 | Energy Risk May 27 — May 27, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-05-26. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-26.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€47.63/MWh
+4.09%
Source date: 2026-05-26
VIX
17.01 points
+0.42 points
Source date: 2026-05-26
Brent Crude
$99.27/bbl
+3.08%
Source date: 2026-05-26
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-26
EU Gas Storage
38.80%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-26
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrobras or APA: Which Oil Stock Offers Better Risk Reward? - Zacks Investment Research | 5 | 10.5% | Brazil Petrobras & Energy |
| UAE speeds Hormuz bypass pipeline as Europe warned of risks - MSN | 5 | 6.9% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Low Risk
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; EERI down sharply (Locked — free account), indicating regional conflict risk perception easing, while GERI stable at Locked — free account.
- Volatility: VIX modestly up (+0.42 to 17.01), signaling slight increase in equity market uncertainty but still low overall.
- Energy Geopolitical Stress Index (EGSI-M): Elevated at Locked — free account, reflecting ongoing Middle East tensions and war-related disruptions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High spillover via oil supply routes; Hormuz pipeline bypass acceleration and Gulf LNG cargo resumption to India mitigate some risk but maintain pressure on global oil prices.
- Europe → Global: Reduced spillover risk as EERI falls; EU gas storage steady, and Ukraine conflict warnings contained for now.
- Asia → Global: Quad nations’ critical minerals pact amid China tensions adds geopolitical risk but limited immediate energy market impact.
- Black Sea → Europe: Russia’s threats to Kyiv maintain regional risk but no immediate escalation detected.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €47.63/MWh | +4.09% |
| VIX | 17.01 points | +0.42 points |
| Brent Crude | $99.27/bbl | +3.08% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 38.80% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price (+3.08%) outpaces risk index change (GERI flat), indicating market pricing in supply disruption premium beyond current risk index level.
- TTF gas up Locked — free account despite EERI drop suggests market concerns over supply tightness remain elevated, possibly due to LNG flow volatility and geopolitical uncertainty in Middle East.
- VIX remains subdued relative to energy price spikes, indicating equity markets not fully pricing in geopolitical risk.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Energy markets currently balance on a knife-edge between easing European risk and persistent Middle East war-related tensions. Brent crude’s Locked — free account rise and TTF gas Locked — free account surge reflect market pricing in supply disruption risk, despite a stable global risk index (GERI) and falling European risk index (EERI). The acceleration of the Hormuz bypass pipeline and resumption of Gulf LNG exports to India provide partial relief but remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, particularly from Iran-US ceasefire violations and Russia’s threats in the Black Sea. Investors should prepare for potential regime shifts toward medium risk with a ~Locked — free account probability in the near term, emphasizing LNG and storage assets as key hedges. Equity volatility remains low, suggesting a lag in risk repricing that could trigger sharp moves if conflict escalates.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.08% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.09% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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