GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 19 · 7 day 10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US strikes Iranian: GERI 19 | Energy Risk May 26 — May 26, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-05-25. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 19.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-25.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.76/MWh
-0.67%
Source date: 2026-05-25
VIX
16.59 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-22
Brent Crude
$96.30/bbl
-7.63%
Source date: 2026-05-25
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-25
EU Gas Storage
38.50%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-25
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iranian fast boats as Iran attacks UAE oil facility - AOL.com | 5 | 10.0% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Lavrov informs Rubio that Russia begins strikes on military sites in Kiev | 5 | 4.6% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment persists despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Elevated regional conflict risk in Middle East and Russia-Ukraine theaters; limited contagion to global markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: US strikes on Iranian fast boats and Iran’s attack on UAE oil facility have heightened local war risk, triggering a fertilizer supply shock via Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
- Russia-Ukraine: Russia’s intensified strikes on Kyiv and Ukraine’s surface-to-air missile deficit increase military risk, impacting Eastern European energy infrastructure (power outages in five regions).
- Europe: Energy demand growth (data centers outpacing clean power deals) contrasts with power outages from war and weather, creating localized supply stress but contained.
- Spillover: Middle East conflict risk is contained regionally but pressures global fertilizer and oil markets; Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts Eastern Europe energy security, with limited spillover to Western Europe and global markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.76/MWh | -0.67% |
| VIX | 16.59 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $96.30/bbl | -7.63% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 38.50% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Elevated war alerts and energy supply disruptions contrast with falling Brent crude prices (-7.63%), indicating market pricing in demand slowdown or risk premium compression.
- EU gas storage up +0.30% supports mild divergence between risk signals and gas prices (-0.67%), suggesting market confidence in short-term supply stability.
- VIX remains low, signaling market complacency despite rising geopolitical risk indices.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a surge in geopolitical alerts related to Middle East naval clashes and intensified Russian strikes on Kyiv, global energy risk indices remain at low levels, reflecting contained contagion and robust supply buffers, particularly in European gas storage. The notable decline in Brent crude price (-7.63%) amid rising war risk suggests market concerns over demand rather than supply constraints. Power outages in Eastern Europe and fertilizer supply shocks from Strait of Hormuz tensions warrant close monitoring, as they pose localized but significant risks to industrial and agricultural sectors. The current low-risk regime could transition to medium risk if conflicts escalate, underscoring the importance of dynamic risk management and scenario planning for energy portfolios.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.69% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.67% between recorded quotes; GERI 0 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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