GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
12 / 100
LOW1 day 3 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US Waiver Extension: GERI 12 | Energy Risk May 19 — May 19, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 12 (LOW) on 2026-05-18. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 12; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-18.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€49.45/MWh
-3.23%
Source date: 2026-05-18
VIX
17.82 points
-0.61 points
Source date: 2026-05-18
Brent Crude
$109.69/bbl
+0.20%
Source date: 2026-05-18
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-18
EU Gas Storage
36.70%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-05-18
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Waiver Extension Keeps India’s Russian Crude Lifeline Open | 5 | 18.7% | OilPrice.com |
| Explosions in Khmelnytskyi: Russia strikes with hypersonic missiles - 112.ua | 5 | 4.7% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, supported by stable VIX (17.82, -0.61) and modest market moves.
- Regime: Transitional, with no defined regime but rising EERI indicates increasing event-driven risk, especially geopolitical.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion potential, driven by geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Black Sea, partially offset by sanction waivers.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 12
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Black Sea: Sanctions waiver extension sustains crude flows to India, reducing immediate supply shock risk.
- Middle East: Elevated war risk remains, but temporary de-escalation with strike pause lowers short-term volatility. However, Hormuz crisis underpins global oil deficit risk.
- Europe: Russian missile strikes and chip shortages due to sanctions maintain pressure on industrial supply chains.
- North America: Rising natural gas prices reflect tight global LNG markets influenced by Middle East tensions.
Spillover Summary: Middle East tensions amplify global energy price volatility, but Black Sea sanction relief partially mitigates direct supply disruptions. European industrial sectors remain vulnerable to Russian sanctions impact.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €49.45/MWh | -3.23% |
| VIX | 17.82 points | -0.61 points |
| Brent Crude | $109.69/bbl | +0.20% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 36.70% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- EERI surged Locked — free account, signaling heightened event risk, but Brent crude only up Locked — free account, suggesting market is discounting some geopolitical risks due to sanction waivers and strike pauses.
- TTF gas price decline (-3.23%) contrasts with rising natural gas risk alerts, indicating market expects supply relief from EU storage and possibly demand destruction.
- VIX declining despite rising EERI implies complacency or confidence in de-escalation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the sharp rise in energy event risk (EERI Locked — free account) signals that geopolitical flashpoints remain highly active, particularly in the Middle East and Black Sea regions. The US Treasury’s extension of Russian oil sanctions waivers provides a temporary buffer against supply shocks, cushioning Brent crude prices and preventing a sharp risk premium build-up. However, the underlying tensions—hypersonic missile strikes in Ukraine and the Hormuz Strait crisis—maintain a latent risk of rapid escalation. Market pricing currently discounts some of this risk, as evidenced by subdued Brent and falling TTF gas prices despite alerts. Traders should monitor sanction waiver timelines and Iran negotiations closely, as their outcomes will likely dictate near-term regime shifts and volatility spikes. Industrial sectors, especially in Europe, remain vulnerable to sanctions-induced supply chain disruptions, warranting cautious positioning.
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Informational only. Not
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.84% between recorded quotes; TTF -3.23% between recorded quotes; GERI 9 → 12. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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