GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
9 / 100
LOW1 day -7 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Oil Shortage Scenario: GERI 9 | Energy Risk May 18 — May 18, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 9 (LOW) on 2026-05-17. The brief covers 14 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 9; 1-day change: -7.
- 14 alerts considered from 2026-05-17.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€51.10/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-15
VIX
18.43 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-15
Brent Crude
$110.62/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-15
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-15
EU Gas Storage
36.60%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-17
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Shortage Scenario Looms Large | 5 | 18.7% | OilPrice.com |
| Trump warns Iran of harder strikes than before if there is no deal | 5 | 4.4% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone; GERI down sharply (-7), indicating reduced global energy risk perception.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion persists from Middle East geopolitical tensions to Europe and North America, but overall risk is receding slightly.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 9
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High alert on oil shortage risk and Iran threats; primary driver of elevated risk in global energy markets.
- Europe: War risks elevated due to drone strikes on UAE nuclear plant and Israel’s counter-FPV drone measures, linked to Ukraine conflict lessons.
- North America: M&A rebound in upstream oil ($38B) signals market confidence, partially offsetting geopolitical risk.
- South America: Venezuela’s oil output surge (~50% growth) introduces supply-side relief, dampening global price spikes.
- Global: Critical mineral extraction for clean energy flagged as a latent risk, potentially affecting long-term supply chains.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €51.10/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 18.43 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $110.62/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 36.60% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite a sharp GERI decline (-7), Brent and TTF prices rose (~1-2%). This divergence suggests markets are pricing in near-term supply risk from Middle East tensions and European war-related disruptions, overriding the broader risk tone improvement.
- Venezuela output surge is not fully priced into Brent, limiting upside but geopolitical threats maintain price support.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market is currently balancing between easing global risk sentiment and localized geopolitical flashpoints. The sharp drop in GERI suggests market participants perceive a reduction in broad systemic risk, largely due to increased Venezuelan oil production and robust North American upstream investment. However, persistent Middle East tensions, underscored by US-Iran threats and drone attacks in Europe, sustain a risk premium in oil and gas prices. The divergence between declining risk indices and rising commodity prices highlights market caution on supply disruptions. Traders should monitor Iran negotiations closely and European security developments, as these will drive short-term volatility. Meanwhile, structural risks from critical mineral extraction warrant attention for medium-term supply chain stability. Energy portfolios should remain agile, balancing exposure to geopolitical risk with opportunities from supply-side improvements.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +1.05% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.87% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 9. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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