GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day -6 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 17 | Energy Risk May 13 — May 13, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-05-12. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: -6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-12.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.51/MWh
-0.43%
Source date: 2026-05-12
VIX
17.99 points
-0.39 points
Source date: 2026-05-12
Brent Crude
$107.69/bbl
+2.97%
Source date: 2026-05-12
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-12
EU Gas Storage
35.70%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-05-12
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Why Physical Crude Premiums Collapse Despite the Hormuz Crisis | 5 | 7.6% | OilPrice.com |
| State of Sustainable Fleets 2026: Fleets diversify amid policy shifts | 5 | 3.7% | FreightWaves |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, reflecting easing immediate tensions despite ongoing geopolitical frictions.
Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional spillover evident, with Middle East conflicts influencing global energy prices and inflation dynamics.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Persistent Hormuz Strait disruptions elevate crude price volatility (+2.97% Brent), sustaining inflationary pressures in the US.
- South America → Global: Venezuela’s oil spill and Petrobras earnings miss contribute to regional supply concerns, pressuring energy equities.
- Europe → Global: Russian attacks causing power outages and Ukraine’s enhanced air defenses create mixed signals; energy supply risks contained but geopolitical risk elevated.
- Cross-regional contagion: Elevated Middle East risk amplifies global crude price sensitivity; South American supply issues add to risk premium despite physical premium collapse.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.51/MWh | -0.43% |
| VIX | 17.99 points | -0.39 points |
| Brent Crude | $107.69/bbl | +2.97% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 35.70% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Physical crude premiums collapsed despite Hormuz Strait crisis, indicating market anticipates alternative supply routes or demand destruction.
- Brent crude prices up 2.97%, suggesting financial markets price in risk premium beyond physical market signals.
- TTF gas down slightly (-0.43%) despite European power outages, reflecting effective storage and resilience.
- VIX down (-0.39%) despite elevated event risk, indicating market confidence in risk stabilization.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and South America, the energy market shows signs of risk stabilization. The paradox of collapsing physical crude premiums amid rising Brent prices suggests market participants are pricing in medium-term supply risks while anticipating short-term demand adjustments or alternative supply routes. European gas markets remain resilient due to stable storage and improved defense against Russian disruptions. However, the critical political timeline in Iraq and environmental risks in Venezuela pose significant upside risk to energy prices and volatility. Traders should prepare for potential regime shifts around late May, balancing energy exposure with inflation-sensitive industrial sectors.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.97% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.43% between recorded quotes; GERI 23 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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