GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
23 / 100
MODERATE1 day 5 · 7 day 5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
West Asia Crisis: GERI 23 | Energy Risk May 12 — May 12, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 23 (MODERATE) on 2026-05-11. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 23; 1-day change: 5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-11.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.71/MWh
+4.24%
Source date: 2026-05-11
VIX
18.38 points
+1.19 points
Source date: 2026-05-11
Brent Crude
$104.58/bbl
+0.12%
Source date: 2026-05-11
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-11
EU Gas Storage
35.60%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-05-11
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Asia Crisis & India’s Energy Security: Fuel Pricing, Fiscal Strain & Strategic Risks - Daily Pioneer | 5 | 7.2% | India Oil & Energy |
| UAE may have carried out strikes on Iranian territory — newspaper | 5 | 12.0% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment persists despite regional tensions.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; Middle East conflict risks contained within energy markets, minimal spillover to global financial volatility.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 23
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: Heightened risk from Iran conflict impacts Indian fuel pricing and energy security, increasing fiscal strain.
- Middle East → Europe: Minor spillover via LNG supply concerns; EU gas storage stable (+0.20%) but price-sensitive to Hormuz disruptions.
- Middle East → US: Political response (petrol tax suspension proposal) indicates domestic sensitivity to global oil price shocks, but limited financial contagion (VIX +1.19%).
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.71/MWh | +4.24% |
| VIX | 18.38 points | +1.19 points |
| Brent Crude | $104.58/bbl | +0.12% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 35.60% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing Gap:
- GERI up +5 signals rising geopolitical risk, yet Brent crude price nearly flat (+0.12%) — indicates market has largely priced in Middle East tensions.
- TTF gas price surge (+4.24%) diverges from moderate EU storage increase (+0.20%), suggesting market anticipates further supply constraints despite current inventory stability.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the Middle East conflict continues to exert upward pressure on energy risk indices, particularly through supply disruption fears centered on the Hormuz Strait. The market has largely priced in these risks for oil, as evidenced by Brent crude’s stability, but gas markets remain more sensitive, reflecting LNG supply concerns and tight European storage. The divergence between rising geopolitical risk and muted oil price response suggests cautious market positioning, with potential for volatility if the conflict escalates or supply routes are further compromised. The probability of prolonged market disruption until 2027, as highlighted by Saudi Aramco, underscores the need for strategic hedging in LNG and storage sectors. Traders should monitor the watchlist indicators closely for early signs of regime shifts or supply-demand imbalances.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.02% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.24% between recorded quotes; GERI 18 → 23. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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