GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day 5 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 18 | Energy Risk May 11 — May 11, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-05-10. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: 5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-10.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€44.81/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
VIX
17.19 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
Brent Crude
$104.60/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
EU Gas Storage
35.40%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-05-10
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar LNG Tanker Crosses Strait of Hormuz Amid Iran War Tensions - econotimes.com | 5 | 24.1% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
| Oil Market Runs Down Safety Cushion as Supply Shock Worsens | 5 | 7.6% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Risk Regime: Low risk environment despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion signals emerging from Middle East conflicts, with limited spillover to Europe and Asia.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 18
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Core risk zone; tanker movements through Strait of Hormuz and Aramco’s strategic responses dominate risk.
- Europe: Elevated risk from Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure; however, EU gas storage at 35.4% capacity mitigates immediate supply concerns.
- Asia: India’s fuel restraint advisories and China’s solar oversupply create mixed signals—war-induced demand suppression vs. renewable capacity glut.
- Global: Somali piracy adds maritime security risk, increasing insurance and transport costs globally.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €44.81/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 17.19 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $104.60/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 35.40% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price rise (+3.27%) aligns with GERI increase (+5), indicating market pricing is catching up with geopolitical risk.
- TTF gas price increase (Locked — free account) is consistent with moderate EERI rise (Locked — free account), but EU gas storage levels suggest some buffer, limiting upside.
- VIX remains subdued, suggesting market complacency or confidence in risk mitigation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market is currently navigating a complex risk landscape dominated by Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities. The rising GERI and EERI indices reflect heightened war-related risks and economic pressures, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. Brent crude’s price appreciation confirms market sensitivity to these developments, while European gas prices are cushioned by moderate storage levels. The low VIX suggests market participants are not yet pricing in extreme volatility, indicating potential for rapid repricing if disruptions escalate. Strategic monitoring of tanker movements, Aramco’s operational updates, and Ukraine conflict dynamics is essential. The interplay of supply shocks and demand-side factors such as India’s fuel restraint and China’s solar oversupply creates a nuanced risk environment requiring agile portfolio adjustments.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.27% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.52% between recorded quotes; GERI 13 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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