GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day -5 · 7 day -5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran War Threatens: GERI 13 | Energy Risk May 10 — May 10, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-05-09. The brief covers 14 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: -5.
- 14 alerts considered from 2026-05-09.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€44.14/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
VIX
17.19 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
Brent Crude
$101.29/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-08
EU Gas Storage
35.00%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-09
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran War Threatens Gulf Investment Boom in Central Asia | 5 | 30.5% | OilPrice.com |
| Why U.S. Drillers Can’t Solve the World’s Oil Supply Crisis | 5 | 20.9% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk environment despite persistent geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Regional war risks remain elevated in Middle East and Russia; limited spillover into global markets as reflected in subdued volatility and stable energy prices.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Persistent war alerts (Iran, Gulf tensions) continue to pressure risk indices but have not triggered broad market contagion; oil prices stable at $101.29/bbl.
- Russia → Europe: War rhetoric and diplomatic stalemates maintain regional risk but limited impact on European gas storage (+0.30%) or prices.
- South America: Venezuela oil output surge partially offsets supply concerns, dampening global energy risk.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €44.14/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 17.19 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $101.29/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 35.00% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite multiple high-severity war alerts, Brent crude price remains flat, indicating market is either pricing in conflict risk or expects limited supply disruption.
- TTF gas price rise (+1.01%) outpaces risk indices, likely driven by demand factors rather than geopolitical risk.
- VIX and EUR/USD show minimal risk sensitivity, suggesting contained market anxiety.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia, the global energy risk environment is stabilizing as indicated by declining GERI and EERI indices. Market pricing reflects a balance between conflict risk and supply offsets, notably from Venezuela’s oil output surge and robust EU gas storage. Brent crude’s flat price near $Locked — free account/bbl and modest TTF gas gains suggest market complacency or confidence in supply resilience. However, the risk of sudden escalation remains non-negligible (~Locked — free account), warranting close monitoring of Iran-US military developments and Gulf investment flows. Traders should prepare for potential volatility spikes in energy commodities should geopolitical tensions flare, while also considering the mitigating effect of growing South American supply and stable European storage.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.01% between recorded quotes; GERI 18 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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