GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day 2 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Al Jazeera reporter: GERI 18 | Energy Risk May 9 — May 09, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-05-08. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-08.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.70/MWh
-3.85%
Source date: 2026-05-08
VIX
17.19 points
+0.11 points
Source date: 2026-05-08
Brent Crude
$101.29/bbl
-2.01%
Source date: 2026-05-08
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-08
EU Gas Storage
34.70%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-05-08
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jazeera reporter witnesses Israeli strikes on Lebanon | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
| Cenovus Warns Oil Sands Growth Is Drying Up as Policy Uncertainty Mounts | 5 | 4.7% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Regime: Low risk environment sustained, with GERI rising moderately (+2 to 18), signaling slight uptick in geopolitical concerns but still below medium risk thresholds.
- Contagion Status: Minimal contagion; EERI declined (Locked — free account to Locked — free account), indicating reduced energy-related economic risk spillover despite regional conflicts. EGSI-M steady at Locked — free account, reflecting stable energy market stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 18
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: Direct supply disruption (Qatar LNG plant attack) causes 54% surge in regional gas prices; Asian oil firms report daily losses (~Rs 700–1,000 crore), indicating strong regional economic impact.
- Middle East → Europe: Persistent tensions in Hormuz Strait, but UAE’s defiance and tanker movements mitigate immediate supply shock, limiting European gas price spikes.
- Europe → Global: Russia’s shift to mass attacks on Ukraine’s small substations elevates localized energy insecurity but limited global spillover due to diversified European storage (+0.2%).
- Global → All: IMF warning on AI-enabled cyberattacks raises systemic risk potential but not yet reflected in market volatility (VIX +0.11).
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.70/MWh | -3.85% |
| VIX | 17.19 points | +0.11 points |
| Brent Crude | $101.29/bbl | -2.01% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 34.70% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated geopolitical alerts (GERI up) contrast with declining energy economic risk (EERI down) and falling oil/gas prices. This divergence suggests markets are pricing in near-term oversupply or demand destruction fears despite supply-side risks.
- Potential Underpricing: Qatar LNG plant shutdown and Middle East tensions may not be fully priced in, given 54% gas price surge regionally but EU TTF gas down 3.85%.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The geopolitical environment remains tense but contained, with Middle East conflicts and Russian energy sector attacks driving moderate risk upticks. Market pricing currently discounts some of these risks, as oil and gas prices have retraced despite supply disruptions. The divergence suggests a potential underpricing of supply-side risks, especially in LNG markets given the Qatar plant shutdown. The low risk regime is fragile, with a moderate probability of escalation or cyberattack shocks that could rapidly increase
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.23% between recorded quotes; TTF -3.85% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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