GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
26 / 100
MODERATE1 day 1 · 7 day 5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 26 | Energy Risk May 6 — May 06, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 26 (MODERATE) on 2026-05-05. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 26; 1-day change: 1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-05.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.41/MWh
-4.01%
Source date: 2026-05-05
VIX
17.38 points
-0.91 points
Source date: 2026-05-05
Brent Crude
$108.60/bbl
-4.74%
Source date: 2026-05-05
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-05
EU Gas Storage
34.20%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-05-05
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iranian Missiles Strike UAE Oil Port Amid Hormuz Ceasefire Crisis - Discovery Alert | 5 | 10.9% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Iranian Missile and Drone Strikes Target UAE Oil Infrastructure for Second Day - legalinsurrection.com | 5 | 17.9% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite recent Middle East conflict flare-ups.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; geopolitical tensions localized to Middle East with muted spillover to European and global markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 26
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Elevated missile/drone strikes on UAE oil infrastructure increase localized risk but have not triggered broader regional escalation.
- Middle East → Europe: Minimal contagion; European alerts (e.g., Crimea drone strike) are isolated and unrelated to Middle East conflict.
- Global → Middle East: No significant feedback loop; Sudan-Ethiopia tensions remain separate from Middle East conflict dynamics.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.41/MWh | -4.01% |
| VIX | 17.38 points | -0.91 points |
| Brent Crude | $108.60/bbl | -4.74% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 34.20% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite heightened Middle East conflict alerts, Brent crude and TTF gas prices declined sharply (~4-5%), indicating market pricing in risk-off sentiment possibly due to expectations of limited supply disruption or demand concerns.
- VIX decreased (-0.91), suggesting overall market volatility is subdued despite geopolitical headlines, reinforcing low risk tone.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite recent high-profile missile and drone attacks on UAE oil infrastructure, the global energy risk environment remains low with limited contagion beyond the Middle East. The disconnect between heightened geopolitical alerts and declining energy prices suggests markets are pricing in contained conflict with no immediate supply shocks. EU gas storage stability and subdued volatility reinforce this view. However, repeated attacks raise the medium-term probability of escalation, warranting close monitoring of strike frequency and geopolitical responses. Energy traders should remain cautious, favoring flexible positioning with hedges against potential supply disruptions while capitalizing on current risk-off price softness.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -4.79% between recorded quotes; TTF -4.01% between recorded quotes; GERI 25 → 26. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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