GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day -13 · 7 day -8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Cuba Blasts “Dangerous”: GERI 13 | Energy Risk May 7 — May 07, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-05-06. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: -13.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-06.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.62/MWh
-6.01%
Source date: 2026-05-06
VIX
17.39 points
+0.01 points
Source date: 2026-05-06
Brent Crude
$101.96/bbl
-7.57%
Source date: 2026-05-06
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-06
EU Gas Storage
34.30%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-05-06
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba Blasts “Dangerous” US Threats | 5 | 5.7% | MarineLink / Maritime Reporter |
| In rare push, US lawmakers demand transparency on Israel nuclear capability | 5 | 5.1% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by a sharp drop in GERI (Locked — free account) despite a slight uptick in EERI (Locked — free account).
- Contagion Status: Moderate geopolitical tensions persist globally, with concentrated war-related alerts in Middle East and Europe, but market reaction suggests risk aversion is receding.
- Volatility: VIX steady at 17.39, indicating stable equity market uncertainty.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: High alert density (Israel, Iran, Gaza), sustaining economic risk but limited contagion to energy prices due to U.S. fuel exports offsetting Hormuz risks.
- Europe: Russia’s evacuation warnings and potential troop redeployments to Poland maintain war risk but with diminishing market impact.
- Global: Cuba’s rhetoric and BIMCO’s warning on Project Freedom add to global risk perception but have not triggered broad market contagion.
- Spillover Summary: Risk remains regionally concentrated with limited cross-regional amplification.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.62/MWh | -6.01% |
| VIX | 17.39 points | +0.01 points |
| Brent Crude | $101.96/bbl | -7.57% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 34.30% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite multiple war-related alerts, Brent and TTF gas prices fell sharply, indicating market pricing in risk mitigation via U.S. fuel exports and stable EU storage.
- VIX’s flat response supports a divergence where geopolitical risk is not translating into heightened market volatility.
- EERI rise suggests economic risk is still perceived but not fully priced into energy markets.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
EnergyRiskIQ analysis highlights a decoupling between persistent geopolitical risk alerts and energy market pricing, driven by robust U.S. fuel exports and stable European gas storage mitigating supply concerns. The sharp correction in Brent and TTF gas prices signals market confidence in containment of current tensions, despite ongoing war-related developments in the Middle East and Europe. The stabilizing risk regime suggests a window for measured energy exposure, though vigilance is warranted given the 25% probability of risk escalation tied to conflict flare-ups. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure with flexible hedging to navigate potential volatility spikes.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -6.11% between recorded quotes; TTF -6.01% between recorded quotes; GERI 26 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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