GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
25 / 100
MODERATE1 day 10 · 7 day 5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
OPEC Output Plunges: GERI 25 | Energy Risk May 5 — May 05, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 25 (MODERATE) on 2026-05-04. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 25; 1-day change: 10.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-04.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€48.35/MWh
+6.69%
Source date: 2026-05-04
VIX
18.29 points
+1.30 points
Source date: 2026-05-04
Brent Crude
$114.06/bbl
+5.66%
Source date: 2026-05-04
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-04
EU Gas Storage
34.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-04
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC Output Plunges by 7 Million Bpd as War Chokes Supply - Investing.com | 5 | 70.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
| OPEC oil output plunges in March as war forces export cuts, Reuters survey finds - The Economic Times | 5 | 70.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Low risk environment persists despite recent geopolitical shocks.
- Contagion Status: Emerging contagion signals from Middle East conflict impacting global energy markets, with moderate spillover to Europe.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 25
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East conflict is the epicenter, with direct impacts on global oil supply (OPEC output down 7 million bpd).
- European risk elevated by Russian threats to gas infrastructure, amplifying energy security concerns.
- US military actions and calls for allied involvement (South Korea) indicate potential for escalation, increasing global risk spillover.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €48.35/MWh | +6.69% |
| VIX | 18.29 points | +1.30 points |
| Brent Crude | $114.06/bbl | +5.66% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 34.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude’s 5.66% daily jump aligns with sharp OPEC output cuts and Middle East conflict alerts, indicating market pricing is reflective of risk signals.
- TTF gas price increase (Locked — free account) slightly outpaces EERI rise (Locked — free account points), suggesting market is pricing in a more severe European supply crunch than risk index alone.
- VIX increase modest, indicating broader equity market risk remains contained despite energy shocks.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The sharp rise in global and European energy risk indices reflects a confluence of geopolitical shocks centered on the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The 7 million bpd OPEC output reduction amid war-driven export cuts is the principal driver behind the 5.66% Brent crude surge, with additional pressure from Iran-UAE conflicts and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. European gas markets are under dual threat from Russian gas production risks and Middle East instability, pushing TTF prices up 6.69%. Despite these shocks, overall market volatility (VIX) remains modest, suggesting equity markets have yet to fully price in a broader risk contagion. The low risk regime is vulnerable, with nearly a 50% chance of transitioning to medium risk within a week if tensions persist or escalate. Energy sector participants should prepare for sustained price volatility, with LNG demand likely to increase as Europe seeks alternatives. Monitoring geopolitical developments and supply data will be critical for timely risk management and portfolio adjustment.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +5.35% between recorded quotes; TTF +6.69% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 25. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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