GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day 5 · 7 day -5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
OPEC oil production: GERI 15 | Energy Risk May 4 — May 04, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-05-03. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: 5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-03.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.32/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-30
VIX
16.99 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-01
Brent Crude
$108.27/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-01
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-01
EU Gas Storage
33.80%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-05-03
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC oil production dives in March as conflict hits exports - Baird Maritime | 5 | 70.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
| German Institute Chief warns of significant risks to economy due to US tariffs| Gulf Times - Gulf Times | 5 | 3.6% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Regime: Low risk environment persists despite regional tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion potential within Middle East energy and geopolitical sectors; limited spillover to Europe and global markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets: OPEC production drop and Iran’s potential oil well shutdown increase supply risk, pushing Brent crude slightly higher (+0.09%).
- Middle East → Europe: LNG disruption in Qatar triggers power crisis in Pakistan, with limited direct impact on EU gas prices (TTF down -0.96%) but potential for volatility if disruptions spread.
- US/EU → Middle East: US dropping Tomahawk missile deployment reduces immediate military escalation risk in Russia-Middle East corridor, slightly moderating geopolitical risk.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.32/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 16.99 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $108.27/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 33.80% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated geopolitical alerts (GERI +5) contrast with muted Brent and TTF moves, suggesting markets currently discount sustained supply disruptions or expect rapid resolution.
- Economic Risk vs Currency: Slight rise in EERI (Locked — free account) aligns with EUR/USD weakening, indicating market sensitivity to US tariff risks on European economy.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the sharp rise in GERI (+5) driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and OPEC production declines signals latent supply-side vulnerabilities. Market pricing remains cautious but subdued, reflecting confidence in current storage buffers and limited immediate escalation. The potential mothballing of Iranian wells and renewed Gaza conflict represent key inflection points with a 25-40% probability of pushing markets into a moderate risk regime. Traders should maintain vigilance on Middle East developments and LNG supply chains, balancing energy exposure with tactical hedges against geopolitical shocks. The divergence between risk signals and asset price moves suggests a window for opportunistic positioning ahead of possible volatility.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.09% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.96% between recorded quotes; GERI 10 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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