GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
10 / 100
LOW1 day -9 · 7 day -11
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Khartoum drone strike: GERI 10 | Energy Risk May 3 — May 03, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 10 (LOW) on 2026-05-02. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 10; 1-day change: -9.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-02.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.76/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-30
VIX
16.99 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-01
Brent Crude
$108.17/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-01
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-01
EU Gas Storage
33.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-05-02
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khartoum drone strike kills five Sudan NGO reports | 5 | 5.1% | Al Jazeera News |
| Ukraine eyes Belarus border activities as Russian strikes persist | 5 | 16.1% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone with reduced headline intensity.
- Contagion Status: Declining global risk spillover; conflict-driven energy tensions persist but show signs of plateauing.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 10
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East conflict remains primary risk source, driving global energy supply concerns.
- Europe’s risk is influenced by Russia-Ukraine conflict but shows signs of risk fatigue and adaptation.
- Asia’s exposure rising due to Hormuz transit risks and increased LNG demand.
- South America’s growing oil output (Venezuela) provides partial supply relief, dampening global risk spillover.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.76/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 16.99 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $108.17/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 33.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high Middle East geopolitical stress, Brent crude prices remain stable at $108.17, indicating market confidence in alternative supply routes (e.g., US LNG surge).
- European gas prices rising (+1.69%) align with elevated Europe risk index, showing tight supply-demand balance.
- VIX near 17 suggests moderate implied volatility, consistent with stabilizing risk tone.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The sharp decline in global and European energy risk indices signals market adaptation to ongoing conflicts, with supply adjustments (notably US LNG exports and South American output) mitigating immediate price shocks. Brent crude’s price stability at $108 amid Middle East tensions reflects this balance. However, the elevated Middle East stress index and persistent regional war risks maintain a non-negligible probability of renewed price volatility. European gas prices’ recent rise underscores sensitivity to Russian supply uncertainties. Traders should monitor Iran’s supply disruptions and geopolitical developments closely, as these remain key drivers of short-term volatility and potential regime shifts. Diversification across LNG and oil assets, alongside dynamic hedging strategies, is advisable given the mixed signals of stabilization and latent risk.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.69% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 10. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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