GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day -9 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US LNG exports: GERI 19 | Energy Risk May 2 — May 02, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-05-01. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: -9.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-05-01.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.00/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-30
VIX
16.99 points
+0.10 points
Source date: 2026-05-01
Brent Crude
$108.17/bbl
-5.19%
Source date: 2026-05-01
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-05-01
EU Gas Storage
33.10%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-05-01
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US LNG exports to Asia surged in April as Middle East conflict curtailed supply - Reuters | 5 | 11.5% | Reuters Energy |
| Iran war could drive Britain's supercar elite off road with Lamborghinis and Ferraris under threat - MSN | 5 | 12.0% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone amid easing geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion from Middle East conflict to global energy markets, with localized supply disruptions in Russia and sanctions impacting trade flows.
- Summary: Despite ongoing conflict and sanctions, market volatility and risk indices are retreating, reflecting partial market absorption of shocks.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Middle East conflict continues to pressure European energy supply, but US LNG surge mitigates direct impact on TTF gas prices (-3.06%).
- Middle East → Russia: Supply disruptions in Kherson and sanctions on Russia and Cuba indicate secondary contagion risk, but limited market impact as Brent crude fell 5.19%.
- Global Sanctions → Shipping & Finance: US dual sanctions on Iran-China pipeline and Cuba increase risk in maritime logistics, raising operational costs and insurance premiums.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.00/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 16.99 points | +0.10 points |
| Brent Crude | $108.17/bbl | -5.19% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 33.10% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI and EERI indices fell sharply (Locked — free account and Locked — free account), while Brent crude only declined Locked — free account. This suggests partial market discounting of risk reduction, indicating potential for further price correction if geopolitical tensions abate.
- TTF gas price decline (-3.06%) aligns with risk index movement, reflecting more direct supply-demand sensitivity.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The recent sharp decline in energy risk indices signals market adaptation to ongoing geopolitical tensions, primarily driven by the surge in US LNG exports offsetting Middle East supply disruptions. Brent crude’s milder decline relative to risk indices suggests residual risk premium remains priced in, offering a potential entry point if conflict de-escalates. However, persistent sanctions and regional conflicts sustain a baseline risk level, warranting continued vigilance. Energy portfolios should balance exposure between LNG beneficiaries and oil producers while maintaining flexibility to hedge against renewed volatility.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.94% between recorded quotes; TTF -3.06% between recorded quotes; GERI 28 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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