GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
28 / 100
MODERATE1 day 5 · 7 day 6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran war could: GERI 28 | Energy Risk May 1 — May 01, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 28 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-30. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 28; 1-day change: 5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-30.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.42/MWh
-2.31%
Source date: 2026-04-30
VIX
16.89 points
-1.92 points
Source date: 2026-04-30
Brent Crude
$111.45/bbl
-6.93%
Source date: 2026-04-30
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-30
EU Gas Storage
32.70%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-04-30
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Risk Regime: Low risk environment despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion from Middle East conflicts to European and North American energy markets; limited systemic spillover observed.
- Risk Indices: GERI at Locked — free account (Locked — free account), EERI at Locked — free account (Locked — free account) signal rising but contained geopolitical risk; EGSI-M steady at Locked — free account indicates moderate energy market stress.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 28
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: War involving Iran and Israel causes direct oil and gas supply disruptions; naval resource diversion increases piracy risk off Somalia.
- Europe: Russian strikes exacerbate energy crisis; pipeline projects may mitigate but not eliminate supply concerns.
- North America: Natural gas prices slide amid Permian production plunge, partially offsetting global supply tightness.
- Cross-Region Transmission: Middle East conflict elevates risk premiums in Europe; North American price softness limits global price inflation.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.42/MWh | -2.31% |
| VIX | 16.89 points | -1.92 points |
| Brent Crude | $111.45/bbl | -6.93% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 32.70% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite heightened geopolitical alerts, Brent and TTF gas prices declined (~7% and ~2.3%), indicating market pricing in demand destruction or oversupply concerns, particularly from North American gas.
- Volatility Index (VIX) decreased by 1.92%, suggesting market complacency or confidence in supply mitigation measures.
- EUR/USD down 0.23% aligns with risk-off sentiment but limited currency volatility.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions centered on the Middle East and Europe, market pricing reflects a nuanced balance between supply disruption risks and demand-side concerns, particularly from North American gas market softness. The decline in Brent crude and TTF gas prices alongside a falling VIX suggests market participants currently price in manageable risk with potential for volatility spikes if conflict escalates. The industrial sector in the US shows resilience, benefiting from shifting supply chains. European gas storage improvements and pipeline projects provide partial mitigation but remain watchpoints. Traders should monitor conflict escalation signals and pipeline developments closely, as these will drive regime transitions and price volatility in the near term.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -8.41% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.31% between recorded quotes; GERI 23 → 28. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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