GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
23 / 100
MODERATE1 day -3 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 23 | Energy Risk Apr 30 — April 30, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 23 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-29. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 23; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-29.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€47.52/MWh
+9.47%
Source date: 2026-04-29
VIX
18.81 points
+0.98 points
Source date: 2026-04-29
Brent Crude
$121.68/bbl
+9.37%
Source date: 2026-04-29
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-29
EU Gas Storage
32.50%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-04-29
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia offers to secure India’s energy supplies as West Asia crisis threatens Strait of Hormuz oil routes - MSN | 5 | 17.0% | India Oil & Energy |
| California Refineries Max Out Jet Fuel While Gasoline Starves | 5 | 21.0% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, supported by moderate GERI decline (Locked — free account) despite rising EERI (Locked — free account).
- Contagion: Elevated geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Asia exert upward pressure on energy prices and volatility, but overall systemic risk remains contained.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 23
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: Russia’s offer to India signals risk spillover from Middle East supply disruptions to Asian energy security, increasing Asian market sensitivity.
- Middle East → Europe: Fertilizer price doubling due to Strait closure impacts European agriculture and industrial sectors, compounding energy cost inflation.
- Europe → Global: Ukrainian power outages and drone attacks elevate European energy risk, but limited contagion beyond regional power markets.
- North Africa: Political instability remains localized with limited immediate global energy price impact.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €47.52/MWh | +9.47% |
| VIX | 18.81 points | +0.98 points |
| Brent Crude | $121.68/bbl | +9.37% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 32.50% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price (+9.37%) outpaces GERI decline (-3), indicating market is pricing in near-term supply shocks more aggressively than the broader risk index.
- TTF gas price and EERI rise (Locked — free account) are aligned, showing consistent risk recognition in European energy markets.
- VIX increase is modest, suggesting equity markets are somewhat insulated from energy-specific geopolitical risks at this stage.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current energy risk landscape is characterized by a paradox of stabilizing systemic risk (GERI down) amid rising event-specific geopolitical tensions (EERI up), particularly centered on Middle East supply routes and European industrial vulnerabilities. Brent crude and TTF gas prices have reacted sharply to these localized disruptions, reflecting market anticipations of constrained supply and inflationary pressures. The divergence between broader risk indices and asset price moves suggests traders are front-running potential supply shocks. The moderate increase in volatility (VIX) indicates equity markets are cautious but not yet pricing in full geopolitical escalation. Key focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz blockade’s duration and the geopolitical ramifications of UAE’s OPEC exit. Energy storage levels and fertilizer price trends in Europe will be critical to monitor for signs of systemic stress escalation or relief. Portfolio strategies should prepare for sustained elevated energy prices with contingency plans for rapid risk regime shifts if Middle East tensions escalate.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +9.37% between recorded quotes; TTF +9.47% between recorded quotes; GERI 26 → 23. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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