GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
26 / 100
MODERATE1 day 6 · 7 day 6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Gulf unity collapses?: GERI 26 | Energy Risk Apr 29 — April 29, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 26 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-28. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 26; 1-day change: 6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-28.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.41/MWh
-1.16%
Source date: 2026-04-28
VIX
17.83 points
-0.19 points
Source date: 2026-04-28
Brent Crude
$111.26/bbl
+2.73%
Source date: 2026-04-28
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-28
EU Gas Storage
32.20%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-04-28
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, despite heightened geopolitical alerts in the Middle East.
- Regime: Transitional; no clear regime classification due to mixed signals.
- Contagion Status: Localized Middle East tensions with limited immediate contagion to global markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 26
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Core risk driver; multiple high-severity alerts including OPEC disruption, Iran-Saudi military threats, and shipping lane security concerns.
- Global: Security Council demands on Hormuz signal global awareness but no immediate escalation in other regions.
- Europe: Slightly insulated; EU gas storage stable (+0.20%), TTF gas prices down (-1.16%), indicating limited spillover from Middle East tensions.
- US: Indirect impact via oil price rise and political risk; no direct contagion observed.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.41/MWh | -1.16% |
| VIX | 17.83 points | -0.19 points |
| Brent Crude | $111.26/bbl | +2.73% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 32.20% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price increase (+2.73%) aligns with high-severity Middle East alerts and OPEC disruption risk.
- TTF gas price decline (-1.16%) diverges from regional risk, reflecting strong EU storage and mild winter outlook.
- VIX decline despite geopolitical risk suggests market complacency or focus on other global factors.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the Middle East remains a hotspot with multiple high-severity alerts indicating potential for supply disruption. The unexpected Saudi move to exit OPEC challenges the longstanding oil market structure, pushing Brent prices higher (+2.73%). However, European gas markets show resilience, with TTF prices declining and storage levels stable, suggesting decoupling from Middle East risk. The market’s muted volatility response (VIX down) indicates complacency or focus on other factors, but the probability of regime shift to higher risk remains significant (~25%) if military tensions escalate or Gulf unity dissolves further. Traders should position for increased Brent volatility while monitoring geopolitical developments closely, particularly around OPEC cohesion and US-Iran diplomacy. Storage and LNG sectors currently offer defensive buffers against supply shocks.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.73% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.16% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 26. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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