GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
20 / 100
LOW1 day 4 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Amid attacks, gas: GERI 20 | Energy Risk Apr 28 — April 28, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 20 (LOW) on 2026-04-27. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 20; 1-day change: 4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-27.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.92/MWh
-1.63%
Source date: 2026-04-27
VIX
18.02 points
-0.69 points
Source date: 2026-04-27
Brent Crude
$108.30/bbl
+0.75%
Source date: 2026-04-27
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-27
EU Gas Storage
32.00%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-04-27
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amid attacks, gas prices spike as countries look to secure supplies - msn.com | 5 | 5.0% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
| Preemptive strikes on Russian launchers: experts on countering ballistic missiles - 112.ua | 5 | 3.7% | Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, despite heightened geopolitical tensions.
- Regime Status: No formal regime classification; market volatility (VIX) slightly decreased, indicating contained market stress.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; regional conflicts have not escalated into broader systemic risk.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 20
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Europe: Elevated risk from Russian missile strikes and disrupted power routes; gas price spike signals supply concerns.
- Middle East: Iranian strike on Qatar LNG complex significantly raises regional supply risk, potential for broader LNG market disruption.
- Black Sea: Preemptive strikes on Russian launchers indicate active conflict zone; potential for escalation affecting energy transit routes.
- Spillover: Middle East LNG disruption is exerting downward pressure on TTF gas prices (-1.63%), indicating market anticipation of supply rerouting or demand destruction.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.92/MWh | -1.63% |
| VIX | 18.02 points | -0.69 points |
| Brent Crude | $108.30/bbl | +0.75% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 32.00% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: GERI increased by 25% (from 16 to 20), yet Brent crude rose only modestly (+0.75%), and TTF gas declined (-1.63%). This divergence suggests market is pricing in conflict risk but also factoring in demand destruction and alternative supply routes.
- VIX decline amid rising geopolitical alerts indicates market confidence in central bank stability and risk containment.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, recent geopolitical developments—particularly the Iranian strike on Qatar’s LNG complex and Russian missile barrages in Europe—have elevated the GERI by 25%. Market pricing reflects a nuanced view: Brent crude is moderately higher, but TTF gas prices have declined, likely due to anticipated demand destruction and supply rerouting. The VIX’s slight decline suggests market participants are not panicking but remain watchful. The ECB’s expected rate hold amid inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict adds a layer of macroeconomic uncertainty, pressuring the euro. Energy storage builds in Europe provide some cushion, but LNG sector remains vulnerable. Probability models indicate a significant chance of gas price spikes if conflicts worsen, warranting close monitoring of multi-week indicators such as LNG plant repairs and missile activity. Portfolio strategies should balance exposure to energy price volatility with hedges against supply disruptions, particularly in LNG and European power sectors.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.75% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.63% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 20. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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