GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
24 / 100
MODERATE1 day -1 · 7 day 6
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Trump threatens to: GERI 24 | Energy Risk Apr 25 — April 25, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 24 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-24. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 24; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-24.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€44.71/MWh
-1.67%
Source date: 2026-04-24
VIX
18.71 points
-0.60 points
Source date: 2026-04-24
Brent Crude
$105.33/bbl
-0.64%
Source date: 2026-04-24
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-24
EU Gas Storage
31.20%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-04-24
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion observed; Middle East conflict pressures remain regional but with emerging European energy market impacts.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 24
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Iran’s attacks on Qatar LNG facilities triggered a 45% surge in European gas prices, showing direct transmission of regional conflict to European energy markets.
- Middle East → Asia: Qatar LNG output cut by 17% threatens Asian importers, notably India (47% LNG import dependence), increasing supply risk.
- Middle East → US: Jones Act shipping waiver extension signals US logistical adjustments to mitigate Middle East supply disruptions.
- Europe → Global: Aluminum supply shocks linked to European war-related disruptions suggest broader industrial commodity contagion.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €44.71/MWh | -1.67% |
| VIX | 18.71 points | -0.60 points |
| Brent Crude | $105.33/bbl | -0.64% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 31.20% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite severe Middle East conflict and LNG output cuts, Brent crude prices declined slightly (-0.64%), indicating market pricing in near-term demand destruction or risk premium normalization.
- European Gas Prices: Contrastingly, TTF gas prices fell 1.67% after a 45% surge earlier, showing short-term correction or profit-taking despite ongoing supply threats.
- VIX Volatility: Decline in VIX suggests equity markets are not pricing in escalating systemic risk, indicating potential underestimation of geopolitical risk persistence.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The Middle East conflict continues to exert significant stress on global energy supply chains, particularly LNG exports from Qatar, which have a direct and quantifiable impact on European gas prices and Asian importers such as India. Despite a stabilizing risk tone, the sharp drop in event risk index suggests markets may be underpricing the persistence of geopolitical risk. The divergence between declining Brent crude prices and elevated LNG supply risk indicates a complex interplay of demand concerns and supply shocks. Traders should closely monitor LNG output restoration timelines and Iranian military activity for directional cues. The aluminum supply shock adds an industrial commodity risk layer, potentially influencing broader inflation dynamics. The probability-weighted scenario framework favors a protracted conflict with intermittent disruptions, supporting a cautious stance on energy and industrial commodity exposures.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.92% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.67% between recorded quotes; GERI 25 → 24. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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