GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
25 / 100
MODERATE1 day 2 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran-Iraq war to: GERI 25 | Energy Risk Apr 24 — April 24, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 25 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-23. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 25; 1-day change: 2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-23.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.47/MWh
+2.97%
Source date: 2026-04-23
VIX
19.31 points
+0.39 points
Source date: 2026-04-23
Brent Crude
$106.31/bbl
+3.47%
Source date: 2026-04-23
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-23
EU Gas Storage
30.90%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-04-23
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime: Transitional, elevated geopolitical tension in Middle East but no full regime shift yet
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk from Middle East to global energy markets, especially oil and LNG supply chains
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 25
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Energy Markets:
- Iran-Iraq war legacy and current missile attacks on Qatar LNG facilities increase risk of supply shocks impacting global LNG and crude oil prices.
- Hormuz Strait tensions heighten risk of chokepoint closure or disruption, potentially causing price volatility spillover to Europe and Asia.
- Europe: Refining cuts due to Middle East conflict risk raise diesel and jet fuel supply concerns, increasing European market sensitivity to Middle East events.
- Russia: Localized violence in Dagestan adds marginal risk but no immediate spillover to global energy markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.47/MWh | +2.97% |
| VIX | 19.31 points | +0.39 points |
| Brent Crude | $106.31/bbl | +3.47% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 30.90% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price increase (Locked — free account) aligns with sharp EERI rise (Locked — free account), indicating market is pricing in Middle East supply risk.
- TTF gas price rise (+2.97%) is consistent with refining cuts and LNG supply concerns, but EU gas storage remains stable, suggesting limited immediate supply stress in Europe.
- VIX increase is modest relative to geopolitical alert severity, indicating some market complacency or expectation of contained conflict.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION: EnergyRiskIQ Analyst Note
The Middle East remains the epicenter of elevated energy risk, with a cluster of high-severity war-related events driving a sharp spike in the European Energy Risk Index. The market is pricing in these risks, reflected in a notable rise in Brent crude and TTF gas prices. However, the overall risk tone remains low due to stable EU gas storage and modest volatility increases, suggesting the market anticipates containment rather than escalation. The Locked — free account probability of regime transition to high risk should keep traders vigilant, especially monitoring Hormuz Strait developments and Qatar LNG output. Refining cuts in Asia add a secondary layer of risk, pressuring diesel and jet fuel markets globally. Portfolio positioning should consider potential volatility spikes with a bias towards energy supply disruption hedges, while maintaining flexibility for a possible de-escalation scenario.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.07% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.97% between recorded quotes; GERI 23 → 25. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.