GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day -6 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran's attack on: GERI 18 | Energy Risk Apr 26 — April 26, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-04-25. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: -6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-25.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€44.86/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-24
VIX
18.71 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-24
Brent Crude
$105.33/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-24
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-24
EU Gas Storage
31.50%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-04-25
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran's attack on Saudi Arabia's giant Jubail petrochem complex adds to global supply risk - MSN | 5 | 11.0% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| US-Israel war on Iran disrupts oil, gas supply: Key energy disruptions across Middle East so far - MSN | 5 | 11.3% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite persistent geopolitical shocks.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion beyond Middle East and Asia; Europe flags trade risks but impact contained.
- Summary: Recent Middle East conflict-driven supply risks continue to weigh; however, market volatility (VIX) slightly eased, indicating partial market adaptation.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 18
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: High spillover; India’s 40% oil import risk signals rising vulnerability.
- Middle East → Europe: Moderate spillover; Strait of Hormuz attacks threaten trade routes, prompting European caution.
- Asia → Global: Emerging risk from India’s LPG shortages and oil bill pressures could propagate if conflict expands.
- Overall: Geopolitical tensions in Middle East remain primary risk source with secondary regional contagion in Asia and Europe.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €44.86/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 18.71 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $105.33/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 31.50% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high-level 5/5 alerts on Middle East conflict and supply disruption, Brent crude remains flat, indicating a market plateau or risk premium already embedded.
- VIX decline contrasts with elevated geopolitical risk, suggesting market complacency or confidence in supply mitigation.
- EUR/USD weakening aligns with risk-off sentiment from regional trade disruptions.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current environment reflects a market in cautious stabilization amid persistent Middle East geopolitical risk. The recent high-severity alerts have not translated into immediate price surges, indicating a risk premium already priced into Brent crude and energy markets. However, the persistent conflict, particularly attacks on critical infrastructure like Saudi Arabia’s Jubail complex and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, maintain a latent supply disruption risk with potential to escalate. Asia, especially India, emerges as a secondary risk node due to heavy oil import dependence and LPG shortages, which could propagate energy market shocks if unresolved. Market participants should monitor diplomatic developments closely, as resolution would likely shift the regime toward de-escalation and price normalization. Conversely, any intensification could rapidly increase volatility and supply risk premiums. Cross-asset signals suggest current market complacency may be premature, warranting cautious positioning with hedges against volatility spikes and supply shocks.
---
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.34% between recorded quotes; GERI 24 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.