GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
23 / 100
MODERATE1 day 6 · 7 day 7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Tesla says mass: GERI 23 | Energy Risk Apr 23 — April 23, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 23 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-22. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 23; 1-day change: 6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-22.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€44.16/MWh
+2.34%
Source date: 2026-04-22
VIX
18.92 points
-0.58 points
Source date: 2026-04-22
Brent Crude
$102.15/bbl
+3.57%
Source date: 2026-04-22
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-22
EU Gas Storage
30.80%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-04-22
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla says mass production of electric Semi to begin this year | 5 | 3.7% | FreightWaves |
| US halts Iraq dollar cash shipment after militia strikes, sources say - Arab News | 5 | 10.0% | Iraq Oil & OPEC |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low overall despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Regime Status: Transitional; no established regime but rising geopolitical alerts suggest potential shift.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk centered on Middle East energy disruptions, with spillover effects into global oil and gas markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 23
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global Oil Markets: High spillover from Iran war and Hormuz Strait disruptions pushing Brent crude +3.57% to $102.15. OPEC output cuts amplify this effect.
- Middle East → US Dollar & LNG: Dollar pressure noted with EUR/USD down 0.23%, reflecting safe-haven flows and dollar lifeline discussions for UAE.
- Russia → Sanctions & Energy Supply: Russia’s stance on worst-case US sanctions maintains risk premium on energy exports but limited immediate market impact.
- Europe → Gas Storage: Minimal spillover; EU gas storage slightly up (+0.10%) despite TTF gas rising 2.34%, indicating supply tightness but manageable storage levels.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €44.16/MWh | +2.34% |
| VIX | 18.92 points | -0.58 points |
| Brent Crude | $102.15/bbl | +3.57% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 30.80% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Elevated geopolitical risk (GERI +6) contrasts with relatively low volatility (VIX down 0.58%), suggesting markets are underpricing risk premiums in oil and gas.
- Oil Price vs EERI: Brent crude up Locked — free account despite EERI falling Locked — free account points indicates market focus on supply-side disruptions rather than economic slowdown fears.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market is currently navigating a complex risk environment where geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving significant upward pressure on oil and gas prices despite a generally low risk tone in economic indices. The divergence between elevated geopolitical risk signals and subdued market volatility suggests a potential underpricing of risk premiums, especially in Brent crude. Traders should monitor the Hormuz Strait closely as it remains the critical chokepoint with the highest likelihood of triggering rapid price spikes. The US dollar’s modest strengthening reflects safe-haven flows but remains sensitive to regional developments. Energy portfolios should prepare for a possible regime shift towards higher risk, with scenario planning emphasizing both escalation and de-escalation outcomes. Storage levels in Europe provide some cushion but cannot fully offset supply shocks if conflict intensifies.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.12% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.34% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 23. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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