GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
UK intelligence: 100: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Apr 22 — April 22, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-04-21. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: -3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-21.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.15/MWh
+9.66%
Source date: 2026-04-21
VIX
19.50 points
+0.63 points
Source date: 2026-04-21
Brent Crude
$99.06/bbl
+5.61%
Source date: 2026-04-21
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-21
EU Gas Storage
30.70%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-04-21
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK intelligence: 100 nations have spyware that can hack Britain | 5 | 2.1% | Politico Europe |
| Qatar LNG Disruption Triggers Pakistan Power Crisis - Discovery Alert | 5 | 7.5% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing
- Contagion Status: Elevated cross-regional tension with Middle East conflict effects spilling into Europe and Asia energy markets.
- Despite ongoing Iran ceasefire extension, blockade and conflict-related disruptions maintain elevated risk perception.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Iran conflict and Hormuz blockade threaten jet fuel supplies, prompting EU contingency planning.
- Middle East → Asia: Qatar LNG disruptions trigger Pakistan power crisis, amplifying regional energy insecurity.
- Europe → Global: UK spyware alert signals cyber risk spillover potential affecting energy infrastructure resilience.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.15/MWh | +9.66% |
| VIX | 19.50 points | +0.63 points |
| Brent Crude | $99.06/bbl | +5.61% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 30.70% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price up Locked — free account aligns with Locked — free account point EERI surge, confirming market pricing of supply risk.
- TTF gas price spike (+9.7%) slightly overshoots modest storage increase (+0.1%), indicating market preempting further supply constraints.
- VIX increase is moderate (+0.63), suggesting some risk premium priced but market not fully pricing geopolitical escalation potential.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current stabilizing risk regime masks underlying volatility driven by persistent Middle East conflict and energy supply shocks. The Locked — free account jump in EERI underscores the market’s acute sensitivity to LNG disruptions and oil supply constraints, as reflected in the strong Brent (Locked — free account) and TTF gas (Locked — free account) price moves. Despite diplomatic efforts extending the ceasefire, the blockade and regional tensions sustain a high baseline risk, with a Locked — free account chance of escalation within the week. Energy markets remain vulnerable to further shocks, including cyber risks highlighted by UK intelligence. Traders should maintain a cautious stance, focusing on energy supply chain indicators and geopolitical developments, while preparing for potential volatility spikes.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +4.52% between recorded quotes; TTF +9.66% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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