GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
20 / 100
LOW1 day 13 · 7 day 2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran crisis to: GERI 20 | Energy Risk Apr 21 — April 21, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 20 (LOW) on 2026-04-20. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 20; 1-day change: 13.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-20.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€39.35/MWh
-6.40%
Source date: 2026-04-20
VIX
18.87 points
+1.39 points
Source date: 2026-04-20
Brent Crude
$94.78/bbl
-1.33%
Source date: 2026-04-20
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-20
EU Gas Storage
30.60%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-04-20
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran crisis to dominate world politics for months, if not years to come — Politico | 5 | 12.0% | TASS World News |
| Romania plunges back into political turmoil as Social Democrats move to topple PM | 5 | 5.6% | Politico Europe |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low
- Regime: Transitional, with emerging geopolitical tension signals but no immediate market panic.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional risk spillover, primarily from Middle East conflicts impacting European energy markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 20
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Iran crisis and Hormuz Strait shipping slowdowns are transmitting supply risk to European markets, pressuring gas and oil prices indirectly.
- Russia → Europe: Political and military tensions, including Russian warnings and Czech protests, add to European risk perception but have yet to cause direct market shocks.
- Europe → Global: Romania’s political turmoil could destabilize regional energy policies, potentially affecting EU-wide energy security frameworks.
- Global → Kazakhstan: Water crisis threatens economic growth, potentially reducing energy demand and export capacity in Central Asia.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €39.35/MWh | -6.40% |
| VIX | 18.87 points | +1.39 points |
| Brent Crude | $94.78/bbl | -1.33% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 30.60% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- GERI surged +13 points, indicating heightened risk perception, yet Brent and TTF gas prices declined (-1.33% and -6.40%).
- This divergence suggests markets may be underpricing the potential impact of the Iran crisis and Middle East supply disruptions.
- VIX increase (+1.39) partially aligns with risk rise but remains subdued, indicating investor complacency or hedging limits.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The sharp increase in global energy risk indices driven by the Iran crisis and Middle East supply disruptions contrasts with declining oil and gas prices, indicating a market underestimation of geopolitical risk. The ongoing political turmoil in Europe and Kazakhstan's water crisis add complexity to the supply-demand balance. The current low-risk regime is fragile, with a >60% chance of escalating to moderate risk within a week, primarily due to Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output uncertainties. Traders should prepare for increased volatility and potential price rebounds, especially in gas markets, while monitoring key geopolitical developments closely. Storage levels provide some near-term cushion but are insufficient to offset prolonged disruptions.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -1.33% between recorded quotes; TTF -6.40% between recorded quotes; GERI 7 → 20. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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