GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
7 / 100
LOW1 day -10 · 7 day -11
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
US not serious: GERI 7 | Energy Risk Apr 20 — April 20, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 7 (LOW) on 2026-04-19. The brief covers 14 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 7; 1-day change: -10.
- 14 alerts considered from 2026-04-19.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€42.04/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
VIX
17.48 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
Brent Crude
$96.06/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
EU Gas Storage
30.40%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-04-19
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US not serious about conflict settlement by posing threats to Iranian vessels — Araghchi | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
| Europe Faces Summer Jet Fuel Crisis as Iran War Slashes Supply | 5 | 21.0% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing
Contagion Status: Elevated geopolitical tensions persist, particularly in Middle East and Europe, but market volatility (VIX) slightly eased (-0.46), indicating cautious risk absorption. Energy supply disruptions remain the primary contagion vector.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 7
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Iran’s blockade threats and war-induced supply cuts are triggering jet fuel shortages in Europe, amplifying energy insecurity.
- Russia → India: US sanctions resumption contrasts with extended sanctions relief supporting India’s energy security, creating mixed signals and regional divergence.
- Middle East → South Asia: Gulf war effects causing blackouts and gas shortages in Pakistan, indicating regional infrastructure vulnerability and potential for broader economic contagion.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €42.04/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 17.48 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $96.06/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 30.40% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent’s Locked — free account rise aligns with high geopolitical risk in Middle East (EGSI-M Locked — free account). However, VIX decline suggests market complacency or delayed reaction to conflict escalation.
- Gas Prices vs Storage: TTF gas surged +8.57%, but EU storage only marginally increased (+0.20%), indicating tight physical supply and potential for further price volatility if storage fails to build.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current risk landscape is dominated by Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly Iran’s threats to the Strait of Hormuz and port sieges, which are materially disrupting oil and jet fuel supplies to Europe and beyond. The partial easing in Russian conflict rhetoric has reduced GERI but sanctions remain a wildcard, especially with mixed signals from US and India. Energy markets are pricing in significant supply risk, as seen in the sharp rises in Brent (+6.28%) and TTF gas (+8.57%), while market volatility has not fully caught up, indicating potential for sudden repricing. The fragile stabilizing regime suggests traders should monitor key geopolitical developments closely, especially around Iran and OPEC+ decisions, as these will dictate near-term energy price trajectories and sectoral impacts. Hedging strategies in energy commodities and selective exposure to industrials sensitive to energy costs are advisable given the elevated probability of supply shocks and price spikes.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +6.28% between recorded quotes; TTF +8.57% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 7. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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