GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day -2 · 7 day -1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran may suspend: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Apr 19 — April 19, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-04-18. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: -2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-18.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€38.72/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
VIX
17.48 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
Brent Crude
$90.38/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-17
EU Gas Storage
30.20%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-04-18
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran may suspend production of 15 mln barrels of oil per day for one year — IRGC | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
| Hydropower Is Making a Global Comeback | 5 | 21.0% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite heightened geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Europe.
- Contagion Status: Moderate contagion risk as Middle East supply disruptions and European strikes propagate energy market uncertainties.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Iranian threats and Hormuz Strait tension increase supply disruption risk, pressuring European energy routes already impacted by Russian strikes.
- Europe → Global: Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure disrupt key power routes, amplifying European energy insecurity and global market anxiety.
- North Africa → Asia: South Korea’s pivot to Algeria and Libya for oil amid Hormuz disruptions signals shifting supply chains, increasing regional interdependence and risk transmission.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €38.72/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 17.48 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $90.38/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 30.20% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite multiple 5/5 alerts on conflict and supply disruption, Brent crude remains flat near $90, indicating market underpricing of geopolitical risk.
- TTF gas prices decline amid rising EERI, suggesting demand concerns outweigh supply risk pricing.
- VIX decline contrasts with elevated geopolitical risk, signaling potential complacency or delayed volatility response.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current stabilizing risk regime masks underlying elevated geopolitical tensions primarily centered on the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Iran’s threat to suspend 15 million barrels per day of oil production, combined with the potential full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, presents a material supply disruption risk that is not fully reflected in flat Brent crude pricing. Concurrently, Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure exacerbate European power vulnerabilities and complicate supply security. The divergence between rising event risk indices and muted market volatility suggests a lag in risk pricing or market complacency. Traders should monitor key geopolitical developments closely, as transition to a higher risk regime remains probable within weeks. Hedging strategies focusing on European gas and oil price volatility are advised, alongside vigilance on LNG supply shifts toward North Africa.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.35% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.