GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 3 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Zim's Employees Go: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Apr 18 — April 18, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-04-17. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 3.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-17.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€39.65/MWh
-6.13%
Source date: 2026-04-17
VIX
17.48 points
-0.46 points
Source date: 2026-04-17
Brent Crude
$90.38/bbl
-7.97%
Source date: 2026-04-17
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-17
EU Gas Storage
29.90%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-04-17
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zim's Employees Go Out On Strike as Hapag Merger Moves Forward | 5 | 4.1% | Maritime Executive |
| UN warns South Sudan at risk of ‘full-scale famine’ as fighting intensifies | 5 | 7.4% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite geopolitical flashpoints.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; regional conflicts intensify but global systemic spillover remains contained.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Central hub of risk; reopening of Strait of Hormuz reduces immediate supply disruption fears but persistent conflict sustains risk premium.
- Asia: China’s containment efforts and India’s market volatility (Sensex, Nifty 50 declines, VIX spike) indicate regional spillover from Middle East tensions.
- Africa: South Sudan famine risk and Somalia’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait threats add to maritime chokepoint concerns, amplifying regional risk.
- Europe & North America: G7 warnings and shipping industry pushback signal awareness but limited direct market impact so far.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €39.65/MWh | -6.13% |
| VIX | 17.48 points | -0.46 points |
| Brent Crude | $90.38/bbl | -7.97% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 29.90% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Elevated geopolitical risk (GERI +3) contrasts with sharp oil and gas price declines (~-8% and -6%), indicating market may be anticipating diplomatic de-escalation or demand concerns outweigh supply risk.
- VIX decrease supports reduced market fear despite alerts.
- Potential divergence suggests market complacency or lag in risk incorporation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
Unlock the full analysis and its supporting detail.Create a free account to see today's scenarios and probabilities
11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a cluster of high-severity geopolitical alerts centered on the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, the energy markets have responded with significant price declines in Brent crude (-7.97%) and TTF gas (-6.13%). This divergence suggests that markets may be pricing in a near-term diplomatic resolution or are more concerned about demand softness than supply disruptions. The low risk regime classification, supported by stable economic risk indices and declining volatility, indicates a cautious but non-alarmist market stance. However, the presence of multiple maritime chokepoint threats and regional conflicts warrants close monitoring, as escalation could rapidly shift the risk regime and trigger sharp energy price rebounds. Traders should watch for signals from key chokepoints and regional political developments to anticipate regime shifts and adjust portfolio risk exposures accordingly.
---
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -7.97% between recorded quotes; TTF -6.13% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
Get tomorrow’s risk signals before the market moves.
Open a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios. Real-time features depend on product subscription.
Create free accountDaily Intelligence Report is an account-managed paid product.