GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
22 / 100
MODERATE1 day -5 · 7 day 2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
The Iran war: GERI 22 | Energy Risk Apr 15 — April 15, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 22 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-14. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 22; 1-day change: -5.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-14.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€42.94/MWh
-7.38%
Source date: 2026-04-14
VIX
18.36 points
-0.76 points
Source date: 2026-04-14
Brent Crude
$94.44/bbl
-2.79%
Source date: 2026-04-14
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-14
EU Gas Storage
29.60%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-04-14
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Iran war created a global natural gas shortage — a windfall for U.S. companies - KUOW | 5 | 18.6% | QatarEnergy & Qatar LNG |
| Evolving Cyber Risk Driven by User Credentials and Human Error | 5 | 2.8% | MarineLink / Maritime Reporter |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, reflecting partial easing after recent spikes in geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Persistent Middle East and Eastern Europe conflict risks continue to exert pressure globally, but market reaction is moderating.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 22
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Iran war and Gaza conflict maintain a strong supply disruption signal, pushing global natural gas shortages and crude supply constraints.
- Europe → Global: Russian missile strikes and power route disruptions elevate European energy risk, but France’s increased electrification spending signals a strategic pivot to reduce fossil dependency.
- Global Cyber Risk: Human error and credential vulnerabilities pose latent supply chain disruption risks, amplifying indirect contagion across all regions.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €42.94/MWh | -7.38% |
| VIX | 18.36 points | -0.76 points |
| Brent Crude | $94.44/bbl | -2.79% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 29.60% | +0.00 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high-severity war alerts, Brent and TTF gas prices declined notably (-2.79% and -7.38%), indicating a potential market pricing gap or short-term profit-taking.
- VIX decline suggests market complacency inconsistent with geopolitical risk levels.
- EU gas storage unchanged at low levels signals underlying supply vulnerability not fully priced in.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current stabilizing risk tone masks persistent underlying vulnerabilities rooted in the Middle East war and Eastern European conflict. Despite recent price pullbacks in Brent and TTF gas, fundamental supply shortages remain acute, especially with EU gas storage at low levels and refinery shutdowns in the Middle East. The market’s partial complacency, as evidenced by declining VIX and energy prices, may expose portfolios to sudden shocks if geopolitical tensions escalate or cyber risks materialize. Strategic positioning should balance exposure to LNG exporters benefiting from global shortages against hedges for volatility spikes and supply chain disruptions. The ongoing French electrification investment signals a medium-term structural shift in European energy resilience, potentially reducing fossil fuel dependency risk over the next decade.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.79% between recorded quotes; TTF -7.38% between recorded quotes; GERI 27 → 22. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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