GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
18 / 100
LOW1 day -4 · 7 day -2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran-Iraq war to: GERI 18 | Energy Risk Apr 16 — April 16, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 18 (LOW) on 2026-04-15. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 18; 1-day change: -4.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-15.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.37/MWh
+1.00%
Source date: 2026-04-15
VIX
18.17 points
-0.19 points
Source date: 2026-04-15
Brent Crude
$94.52/bbl
-0.05%
Source date: 2026-04-15
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-15
EU Gas Storage
29.60%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-04-15
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran-Iraq war to attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities - Oil supply shocks through decades | List of 10 major historical outages that moved prices - MSN | 5 | 22.6% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| U.S. Is Most Resilient to the Energy Shock, Until It Isn’t | 5 | 29.1% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk environment despite persistent geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Elevated Middle East war risk (Iran-Iraq conflict, Saudi Aramco attacks) remains a primary contagion source, with limited spillover to North America and Europe.
- Overall Risk Tone: Moderating from previous spikes, but underlying structural supply shocks persist.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 18
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High risk spillover from Iran-Iraq war and Saudi oil output cuts, pressuring global crude supply.
- Middle East → Europe: Elevated due to natural gas shortages linked to Iran war; Norway’s export surge partially offsets risk.
- Middle East → North America: Limited direct impact; however, US resilience tested by port disruptions and legislative uncertainty.
- Asia: Indirect exposure via energy price volatility; US energy resilience noted but conditional on conflict escalation.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.37/MWh | +1.00% |
| VIX | 18.17 points | -0.19 points |
| Brent Crude | $94.52/bbl | -0.05% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 29.60% | +0.00 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite elevated EERI and Middle East conflict, Brent crude prices remain near $Locked — free account, showing muted price reaction relative to risk signals.
- TTF gas prices increased 1%, reflecting regional supply concerns.
- VIX declined slightly, suggesting market complacency or confidence in US resilience despite war risk.
- Interpretation: Market pricing underestimates sustained supply risk from Middle East outages and legislative uncertainty in US.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a stabilizing risk tone, the energy market remains vulnerable to Middle East geopolitical shocks, particularly the Iran-Iraq conflict and Saudi Arabia’s reduced oil output, which continue to impose structural supply constraints. The market’s muted price response to heightened event risk suggests underpricing of supply disruption risk, especially given the US Senate’s failure to limit war powers and ongoing port disruptions in North America. LNG exporters stand to benefit from tight global gas markets, while power and industrial sectors face cost pressures. Probability-weighted scenario analysis highlights a significant risk (~35%) of escalation, warranting cautious positioning and close monitoring of geopolitical and legislative developments.
Key metrics to watch: Brent crude near $Locked — free account, TTF gas Locked — free account, EERI Locked — free account points, Norway export earnings Locked — free account.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.08% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.00% between recorded quotes; GERI 22 → 18. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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