GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
27 / 100
MODERATE1 day 17 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 27 | Energy Risk Apr 14 — April 14, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 27 (MODERATE) on 2026-04-13. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 27; 1-day change: 17.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-04-13.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.36/MWh
+6.26%
Source date: 2026-04-13
VIX
19.12 points
-0.11 points
Source date: 2026-04-13
Brent Crude
$97.15/bbl
-5.38%
Source date: 2026-04-13
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-04-13
EU Gas Storage
29.60%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-04-13
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US naval blockade on Iran: Why Strait of Hormuz tensions could hit India’s oil, LPG and inflation - MSN | 5 | 27.6% | India Oil & Energy |
| China Has Turned To Central Asia To Mitigate Middle East Oil Supply Risk | 5 | 30.5% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk tone persists despite geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional contagion observed, primarily from Middle East conflict spillovers into Asia and Europe energy markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 27
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: US naval blockade and Iran tensions raise supply disruption risk, pushing India’s oil/LPG inflation risk higher. China’s pivot to Central Asia mitigates some risk but does not fully offset.
- Middle East → Europe: Renewed Russia-Ukraine conflict and EU political tensions exacerbate energy security concerns, reflected in rising gas prices.
- Global: OPEC’s downward revision of Q2 demand forecast signals market caution amid conflict uncertainty, influencing global oil price dynamics.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.36/MWh | +6.26% |
| VIX | 19.12 points | -0.11 points |
| Brent Crude | $97.15/bbl | -5.38% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 29.60% | +0.10 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Oil Price vs Risk Signals: Brent crude’s 5.38% drop contrasts with rising geopolitical risk indexes, indicating market pricing in demand destruction (OPEC downgrade) outweighing supply concerns.
- Gas Price vs Risk Signals: TTF gas rally (+6.26%) aligns with risk signals from Europe conflict, showing tight physical market sensitivity.
- Volatility (VIX): Flat despite risk alerts suggests market complacency or risk fatigue.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current low risk tone masks elevated geopolitical stress concentrated in the Middle East and Europe. The US naval blockade and Iran tensions pose a credible threat to global oil supply chains, particularly impacting Asia’s energy inflation risk. OPEC’s demand downgrade reflects market caution but also signals potential for price volatility if supply disruptions materialize. Europe’s gas market is reacting strongly to Russia-Ukraine conflict spillovers, with TTF gas prices rising despite stable storage levels. The divergence between falling oil prices and rising risk indexes suggests market focus on demand destruction amid conflict uncertainty. Traders should prepare for a regime shift towards medium risk if Middle East hostilities escalate, with LNG and gas markets positioned for upside, while oil remains vulnerable to demand shocks. Close monitoring of naval activity and diplomatic developments is critical for near-term positioning.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -5.39% between recorded quotes; TTF +6.26% between recorded quotes; GERI 10 → 27. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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