GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
10 / 100
LOW1 day -6 · 7 day -10
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 10 | Energy Risk Apr 13 — April 13, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 10 (LOW) on 2026-04-12. The brief covers 15 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 10; 1-day change: -6.
- 15 alerts considered from 2026-04-12.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.63/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
VIX
19.23 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
Brent Crude
$102.69/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
EU Gas Storage
29.50%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-04-12
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump’s Critical Warning: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Oil Handling Violates International Agreements - MEXC | 5 | 1.7% | IMO Maritime Security |
| Netanyahu visits southern Lebanon, says campaign against Hezbollah will be continued | 5 | 1.6% | TASS World News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone, reflecting easing from prior heightened tensions.
- Contagion Status: Regional Middle East conflict risks persist but show limited spillover to global markets.
- Key Drivers: Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon remain primary risk sources; however, market reaction is moderating.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 10
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: High localized risk in Middle East (Hormuz blockade, Lebanon conflict) with moderate containment due to diplomatic efforts and no escalation to wider conflict.
- Middle East → Asia: Supply disruptions benefit Chinese clean energy sectors, indicating asymmetric regional impact.
- Europe: Minimal spillover; EU gas storage stable (+0.20%), TTF gas prices flat (-0.02%), suggesting limited contagion to European energy markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €43.63/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 19.23 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $102.69/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 29.50% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price increase (+7.87%) outpaces the decline in risk indices, suggesting market participants are pricing in a persistent premium for Middle East supply risk despite stabilizing risk tone.
- VIX decline contrasts with geopolitical alerts, indicating market complacency or confidence in conflict containment.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current risk environment reflects a cautiously stabilizing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. Despite persistent conflict risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon, recent diplomatic signals and lack of new escalations have reduced headline risk indices significantly. However, Brent crude’s near 8% price jump indicates markets remain sensitive to supply disruption threats, maintaining a risk premium. European gas markets show resilience with stable prices and storage, limiting contagion. Traders should monitor key geopolitical flashpoints and diplomatic developments closely, as the probability of escalation remains significant (25%) and would materially impact energy prices and volatility. The divergence between declining risk indices and rising Brent prices suggests market participants are front-running potential supply shocks. Positioning should balance exposure to potential upside in energy prices against the likelihood of continued stabilization.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +7.87% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.02% between recorded quotes; GERI 16 → 10. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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