GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -3 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Agricultural crisis prompts: GERI 16 | Energy Risk Apr 12 — April 12, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-04-11. The brief covers 18 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -3.
- 18 alerts considered from 2026-04-11.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€43.64/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
VIX
19.23 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
Brent Crude
$95.20/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-04-10
EU Gas Storage
29.30%
+0.10 pp
Source date: 2026-04-11
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agricultural crisis prompts panic among EU and British officials — Dmitriev | 5 | 1.7% | TASS World News |
| Israeli strikes kill at least 18 people across southern Lebanon | 5 | 1.9% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Executive risk snapshot
## EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Global risk tone is stabilizing despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Key drivers include the agricultural crisis impacting EU/UK officials and escalated violence in southern Lebanon from Israeli strikes. Energy markets show muted reaction, suggesting cautious investor positioning amid uncertainty. The decline in EERI (Locked — free account) indicates easing energy-specific risks, while GERI remains elevated. Overall, markets are digesting geopolitical shocks with limited volatility spikes.
## BASIC ASSET MOVES
- Brent Crude: 95.2 (unchanged)
- TTF Gas: 43.64 (-0.48%)
- VIX: 19.23 (-0.26)
- EUR/USD: 1.1544 (-0.23%)
- EU Gas Storage: 29.3% (+0.10%)
## GERI DIRECTION
Current GERI: 16, down 3 points.
Interpretation: General geopolitical risk is easing moderately, reflecting some market stabilization despite persistent conflict zones.
## SHORT WATCHLIST
- Monitor developments in EU agricultural supply chains for potential renewed risk spikes affecting energy and commodity markets.
- Watch Middle East conflict escalation for possible sudden energy price volatility, especially Brent crude and regional gas flows.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.48% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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