GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
40 / 100
MODERATE1 day 28 · 7 day 28
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Brent Hits $114: GERI 40 | Energy Risk Oct 23 — October 23, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 40 (MODERATE) on 2026-10-22. The brief covers 5 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
Current-day intelligence · Updated 2026-10-23T06:52:54.106887+00:00. Market and index readings retain their actual observation dates.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 40; 1-day change: 28.
- 5 alerts considered from 2026-10-23.
- Current-day snapshot using the latest stored observations; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI shows the latest stored daily reading, with its observation date. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€90.82/MWh
+4.40%
Source date: 2026-10-22
VIX
19.03 points
+2.35 points
Source date: 2026-10-22
Brent Crude
$113.76/bbl
+3.43%
Source date: 2026-10-22
EUR/USD
1.1235 USD/EUR
+0.07%
Source date: 2026-10-22
EU Gas Storage
74.60%
+0.00 pp
Source date: 2026-10-22
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Hits $114 as Houthi Attacks Threaten Saudi Energy Infrastructure | 5 | 28.9% | OilPrice.com |
| Can Europe save the world’s war crimes court from Trump? | 5 | 5.7% | Politico Europe |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. Snapshot
On Locked — free account-Locked — free account-Locked — free account, global energy markets face moderate structural stress with a Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) at Locked — free account (Moderate band). Brent crude oil prices surged to $Locked — free account/bbl (Locked — free account), driven by escalating Middle East tensions, notably Houthi attacks threatening Saudi energy infrastructure. European gas prices (TTF) rose to Locked — free account EUR/MWh (Locked — free account), reflecting elevated European Energy Risk Index (EERI) readings at Locked — free account (Elevated band) on Locked — free account-Locked — free account-Locked — free account, signaling heightened stress in European energy systems ahead of winter. Despite severe geopolitical headlines, aggregate risk remains moderate due to low confidence in some events and absence of asset-level contagion. EU gas storage stands at Locked — free account (Moderate risk band), stable from prior day.
2. Indices
The GERI on Locked — free account-Locked — free account-Locked — free account is Locked — free account (Moderate), up from Locked — free account on Locked — free account-Locked — free account-Locked — free account, reflecting increased high-impact event scores mainly from Middle East energy and war-related alerts. The EERI on Locked — free account-Locked — free account-Locked — free account is Locked — free account (Elevated), up from Locked — free account on Locked — free account-Locked — free account-Locked — free account, driven by elevated TTF gas prices and geopolitical risks affecting European supply. The Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission (EGSI-M) latest available data is from Locked — free account-Locked — free account-Locked — free account at Locked — free account (Low band), with no recent updates. Market volatility (VIX) rose to Locked — free account from Locked — free account, indicating increased uncertainty.
3. Spillover
Elevated Middle East tensions, including Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure and ongoing Iran-related conflict risks, are driving global oil price spikes and tightening supply expectations. These developments increase competition for LNG cargoes, notably between Asia and Europe, elevating European gas market stress. However, no significant asset-level contagion or transmission effects are currently observed in Europe or other regions, suggesting limited immediate spillover beyond price and supply concerns.
4. Market Sensitivity
European energy markets show heightened sensitivity to Middle East geopolitical risks, with TTF gas prices at 90.82 EUR/MWh and Brent crude at $113.76/bbl. Asian LNG prices exceeding $30/MMBtu intensify competition for spot cargoes, pressuring European supply options. The VIX increase to 19.03 reflects broader market nervousness. EU gas storage remains stable but will be critical as winter demand rises. Markets are attentive to potential disruptions in shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, which could exacerbate volatility.
5. Divergence
While Middle East energy and war-related alerts carry high severity (Locked — free account) and drive headline risk, confidence in some events is low (e.g., US-Iran conflict updates). This results in a moderate GERI score despite severe individual headlines. European markets exhibit elevated risk (EERI Locked — free account) due to direct exposure to supply competition and price pressures, contrasting with stable EU gas storage and absence of transmission stress. The EGSI-M index is outdated, limiting insight into current market/ transmission stress in Europe.
6. Regime
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7. Sectors
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8. Probability Outlook
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9. Scenarios
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10. Watchlist
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11. Strategic Interpretation
Despite severe headlines on Middle East conflict and energy supply threats, the aggregate global energy risk remains moderate due to low confidence in some event signals and absence of contagion effects. European energy systems face elevated structural stress, driven by supply competition and price volatility as winter approaches. Market participants should maintain heightened vigilance, balancing the risk of sudden supply disruptions against currently stable infrastructure and storage conditions. Strategic focus on maritime security and OPEC+ policy will be critical in shaping near-term energy risk trajectories.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: Middle East Escalation · Probability: 40% illustrative weight, not a calibrated forecast
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.43% between recorded quotes; TTF +4.40% between recorded quotes; GERI 12 → 40. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
Create a free EnergyRiskIQ account for full core dashboards and scenarios.
| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Current-day snapshot, refreshed when generated by the administrator. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
The source set for this issue contains 41 monitored sources.
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The latest public issue uses current-day events and the latest stored observations; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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