GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
16 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Italy to deploy: GERI 16 | Energy Risk Sep 19 — September 19, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 16 (LOW) on 2026-09-18. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 16; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-18.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€79.09/MWh
+0.64%
Source date: 2026-09-18
VIX
14.81 points
-0.63 points
Source date: 2026-09-18
Brent Crude
$103.37/bbl
-0.67%
Source date: 2026-09-18
EUR/USD
1.1489 USD/EUR
+0.17%
Source date: 2026-09-18
EU Gas Storage
69.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-09-18
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy to deploy warships in Red Sea to protect shipping as Houthis tighten grip on Bab el-Mandeb | 5 | 23.4% | Hellenic Shipping News — Shipping |
| Global Shipping Costs Explode as Hormuz Disruptions Hit Key Trade Routes | 5 | 39.7% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone confirmed by a marginal decline in GERI (Locked — free account to Locked — free account) and unchanged EERI (Locked — free account).
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional tensions persist, driven by Middle East shipping disruptions and escalating strikes in Asia, but global volatility (VIX) slightly eased (-0.63%).
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 16
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Italian naval deployment signals Europe’s direct response to Red Sea instability, increasing regional risk spillover.
- North Africa → Global Shipping: Hormuz disruptions have triggered a spike in global shipping costs, impacting energy supply chains worldwide.
- Asia → Global Energy Markets: South Korean shipyard strikes ahead of Chuseok and US-Russia sanction threats on India’s oil policy add pressure on supply logistics and trade flows.
- Russia → Europe: NATO expansion rhetoric and drone threats maintain geopolitical tension, sustaining European risk premiums.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €79.09/MWh | +0.64% |
| VIX | 14.81 points | -0.63 points |
| Brent Crude | $103.37/bbl | -0.67% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1489 USD/EUR | +0.17% |
| EU Gas Storage | 69.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Brent Price: Despite 5/5 severity war and strike alerts, Brent crude declined 0.67%, suggesting market pricing in demand-side weakness or risk premium normalization.
- Gas Prices vs Storage: TTF gas rose 0.64% while EU storage increased 0.3%, indicating tight supply expectations despite improved inventories.
- VIX vs Risk Alerts: VIX dropped 0.63%, diverging from high war alert frequency, implying market complacency or hedging saturation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy risk environment remains in a stabilizing regime despite multiple high-severity alerts centered on Middle East maritime security and regional strikes. The slight decline in global energy risk indices and easing volatility suggest markets are absorbing these risks without panic. However, the divergence between persistent geopolitical alerts and subdued Brent crude pricing highlights market sensitivity to demand-side uncertainties and potential risk premium normalization. The ongoing strikes in South Korea and Saudi oil supply concerns represent key variables that could trigger regime shifts. Maintaining a balanced portfolio with exposure to LNG and storage assets while hedging industrial supply chain risks is advisable as the probability of escalation remains material but not dominant. Close monitoring of maritime security and strike developments will be critical for anticipating near-term risk transitions.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.72% between recorded quotes; TTF +0.64% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 16. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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