GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day -1 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Attack on key: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Sep 17 — September 17, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-09-16. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: -1.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-09-16.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€77.83/MWh
-3.88%
Source date: 2026-09-16
VIX
17.71 points
+0.51 points
Source date: 2026-09-16
Brent Crude
$105.44/bbl
-2.59%
Source date: 2026-09-16
EUR/USD
1.1538 USD/EUR
-0.10%
Source date: 2026-09-16
EU Gas Storage
68.70%
+0.20 pp
Source date: 2026-09-16
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
Regime: Stabilizing
Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional tension persists, with Middle East energy supply risks partially offset by European storage resilience. Risk tone easing but remains watchful due to geopolitical flashpoints.
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2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Observation unavailable for this date
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: Attack on Saudi pipeline sustains high energy supply risk, pushing Brent volatility.
- Europe: ECB rate hikes and depleted gas reserves maintain upward pressure on TTF prices despite storage gains.
- Asia: Port safety measures in China reduce immediate logistic risk but highlight vulnerability to natural disasters.
- Global: Maritime cyber risks and concentrated accident risk in shipping add systemic risk to global trade and energy flows.
- Spillover: Middle East supply disruption risk elevates European energy prices; cyber and geopolitical risks in Europe and Asia create cross-sector vulnerability.
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4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €77.83/MWh | -3.88% |
| VIX | 17.71 points | +0.51 points |
| Brent Crude | $105.44/bbl | -2.59% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1538 USD/EUR | -0.10% |
| EU Gas Storage | 68.70% | +0.20 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Brent crude remains above $100 despite a 2.59% drop, indicating residual supply risk premium.
- TTF gas price decline (-3.88%) contrasts with stable storage, suggesting short-term demand concerns may be overestimated.
- Risk indices decline, but VIX edges up, signaling market nervousness not fully captured by energy risk indices.
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6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The current stabilizing risk regime masks underlying vulnerabilities, particularly in Middle East energy infrastructure and European gas markets. While oil prices have corrected from recent highs, the pipeline attack sustains a premium that could reflate if security deteriorates. European gas markets face a delicate balance: improving storage provides a cushion, but ECB tightening and geopolitical risks keep price volatility elevated. Maritime cyber risks add a less visible but material threat to global energy logistics. Traders should monitor pipeline repair timelines and EU storage trends closely, as these will be key drivers of short-term price and risk regime shifts. Diversification across power and LNG sectors may mitigate exposure to region-specific shocks.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.59% between recorded quotes; TTF -3.88% between recorded quotes; GERI 20 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | Not included in the delayed public digest. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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