GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
13 / 100
LOW1 day -2 · 7 day -3
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
OPEC output falls: GERI 13 | Energy Risk Jun 18 — June 18, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 13 (LOW) on 2026-06-17. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 13; 1-day change: -2.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-17.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€41.00/MWh
-2.71%
Source date: 2026-06-17
VIX
18.44 points
+2.03 points
Source date: 2026-06-17
Brent Crude
$78.66/bbl
-0.97%
Source date: 2026-06-17
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-17
EU Gas Storage
45.60%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-17
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC output falls to 36-year low as Iran war cuts Gulf supply - World Oil | 5 | 70.0% | OPEC & Oil Markets |
| US sends dollar shipment to Iraq but threatens sanctions - The New Arab | 5 | 19.5% | Iraq Oil & OPEC |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone despite ongoing geopolitical and supply tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional risk spillover, primarily from Middle East conflict zones to global energy markets.
- Key Drivers: Sharp OPEC output decline, Middle East sanctions threats, and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict sustain baseline risk but no escalation in volatility indices.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 13
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe/Asia: Iran war and sanctions threats reduce Gulf supply, pressuring European and Asian energy markets.
- Russia → Global: Kremlin’s continuation of special operations maintains risk premium on Russian energy exports.
- Asia → Global: Resolution of Ichthys LNG strike reduces regional supply risk, marginally easing global LNG market tension.
- Europe → Global: Germany’s cautious stance on Hormuz mission reflects uncertainty influencing EU risk appetite.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €41.00/MWh | -2.71% |
| VIX | 18.44 points | +2.03 points |
| Brent Crude | $78.66/bbl | -0.97% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 45.60% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Elevated geopolitical risk (GERI=13) contrasts with declining Brent and TTF prices, indicating market pricing in demand weakness and possible recession fears.
- VIX increase (+2.03%) aligns with risk signals but remains moderate, suggesting cautious but not panicked market behavior.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Energy markets remain caught between structurally tight supply—highlighted by OPEC’s historic low output and Gulf disruptions—and weakening demand signals, notably from India’s low crude reserves and global economic concerns. The resolution of the Ichthys LNG strike provides a rare positive catalyst easing some supply-side pressures in Asia. However, geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East and Russia, sustain a risk premium that keeps volatility elevated but contained. The divergence between elevated risk indices and falling energy prices suggests markets currently price in a demand-driven correction rather than full-scale supply shock. Traders should monitor Iran conflict developments and OPEC output closely, as these will likely dictate the near-term regime transition and volatility spikes.
Key quantitative insight: A 2.7% drop in TTF gas despite supply risks indicates demand weakness outweighs geopolitical premium; Brent’s near 1% decline amid 36-year low OPEC output underscores this dynamic.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.86% between recorded quotes; TTF -2.71% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 13. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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