GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day -4 · 7 day -2
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Jun 17 — June 17, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-06-16. The brief covers 18 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: -4.
- 18 alerts considered from 2026-06-16.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€42.14/MWh
-1.08%
Source date: 2026-06-16
VIX
16.41 points
+0.21 points
Source date: 2026-06-16
Brent Crude
$79.34/bbl
-5.13%
Source date: 2026-06-16
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-16
EU Gas Storage
45.30%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-16
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Military Guidance Reveals High-Risk Reality of Hormuz’s ‘Southern Highway’ | 5 | 2.8% | gCaptain Maritime |
| Taiwan’s Energy Crisis Shows the Cost of Import Dependence | 5 | 10.4% | OilPrice.com |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk tone with signs of easing geopolitical tensions.
- Contagion Status: Moderate cross-regional tension persists, but no escalation spillover detected beyond localized hotspots.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: De-escalation in Hormuz and ceasefire talks in Lebanon reduce immediate war premium, lowering Brent prices.
- North America: High-risk military guidance on Hormuz’s ‘Southern Highway’ remains a latent threat but currently contained.
- Asia: Taiwan’s energy crisis underscores vulnerability to import dependence, maintaining regional energy supply concerns.
- Black Sea/Russia: Russian naval aggression near UK and ongoing Russia-Ukraine diplomatic efforts sustain regional tension but with limited contagion to energy markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €42.14/MWh | -1.08% |
| VIX | 16.41 points | +0.21 points |
| Brent Crude | $79.34/bbl | -5.13% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 45.30% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite ongoing military alerts, Brent crude’s 5.13% decline suggests markets are pricing out a sustained war premium, diverging from high alert levels.
- TTF Gas shows modest price decline despite stable storage, indicating market confidence in supply resilience.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite persistent high-level geopolitical alerts, recent market moves indicate a significant repricing of war risk, particularly in oil markets where the removal of the Hormuz war premium has driven Brent crude down by over 5%. Gas markets show moderate sensitivity, with TTF prices declining slightly amid rising European storage, signaling improved supply security. The stabilization regime is supported by diplomatic efforts and infrastructure developments such as the new energy corridor bypassing Hormuz, which could structurally reduce chokepoint risk. However, latent military tensions in North America and the Black Sea, coupled with Taiwan’s energy vulnerabilities, suggest that risk remains elevated with a non-negligible probability of episodic escalation. Traders should monitor key geopolitical developments and storage metrics closely to adjust exposures, favoring sectors with supply resilience and hedging against potential volatility spikes.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -5.18% between recorded quotes; TTF -1.08% between recorded quotes; GERI 19 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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