GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
11 / 100
LOW1 day -6 · 7 day -7
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Asia-To-US Container Rates: GERI 11 | Energy Risk Jun 7 — June 07, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 11 (LOW) on 2026-06-06. The brief covers 9 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 11; 1-day change: -6.
- 9 alerts considered from 2026-06-06.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€48.49/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-05
VIX
21.51 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-05
Brent Crude
$92.78/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-05
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-06-05
EU Gas Storage
42.10%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-06
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia-To-US Container Rates Spike 109% Since Iran War Started | 5 | 15.6% | gCaptain Maritime |
| Pentagon said to raise threat level on Israel spying to ‘critical’ | 5 | 5.2% | Al Jazeera News |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Stabilizing risk environment despite persistent conflict signals.
- Contagion Status: High contagion potential from Middle East war dynamics to global markets, moderated by recent easing in European and energy indices.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 11
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Global: Elevated war and diplomatic tensions (Israel-Gaza, US-Iran strikes) sustain risk spillover, impacting global shipping (container rates +109%) and energy supply concerns.
- Middle East → Europe: Potential risk transmission via oil price volatility, but current Brent crude price drop (-2.71%) and stable EU gas storage (+0.3%) limit immediate contagion.
- Asia → Global: Sanctions rhetoric (Putin backing India) and geopolitical alignments could influence regional energy trade flows, with indirect effects on global risk sentiment.
- Russia → US: Elevated espionage threat level and US strikes on Iranian radars increase geopolitical friction, but no immediate market disruption observed.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €48.49/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 21.51 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $92.78/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 42.10% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Despite high-risk alerts (Locked — free account/Locked — free account severity), Brent crude and TTF gas prices declined modestly, indicating market pricing in risk mitigation or oversupply.
- VIX rise (+6.11%) aligns with risk signals, showing increased volatility expectations.
- EUR/USD decline (-0.23%) suggests cautious investor positioning amid geopolitical uncertainty.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a high severity of geopolitical alerts centered on the Middle East, recent market data shows a partial decoupling between risk signals and energy price movements. Brent crude’s 2.7% decline and stable European gas storage suggest that markets are currently pricing in either a contained conflict or sufficient supply buffers. However, the sharp spike in Asia-to-US container rates (+109%) and elevated Pentagon threat levels indicate underlying supply chain and security risks that could rapidly re-intensify energy market volatility. The rising VIX (+6.11%) confirms growing investor caution. Traders should prepare for a bifurcated risk regime where geopolitical tensions persist but market pricing remains subdued, with a roughly 30% probability of escalation that could trigger sharp price moves. Maintaining flexible hedging strategies and close monitoring of Middle East conflict dynamics and container shipping costs is advised.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.00% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.25% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 11. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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