GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
17 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day 0
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Iran urges IAEA: GERI 17 | Energy Risk Jun 6 — June 06, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 17 (LOW) on 2026-06-05. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 17; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-05.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€48.61/MWh
-0.59%
Source date: 2026-06-05
VIX
21.51 points
+6.11 points
Source date: 2026-06-05
Brent Crude
$92.78/bbl
-2.71%
Source date: 2026-06-05
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-05
EU Gas Storage
41.80%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-05
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran urges IAEA to show zero tolerance to attacks on nuclear sites | 5 | 4.5% | TASS World News |
| ATSB: Delayed Emergency Assistance a Factor in Breakaway Ships During Storm | 5 | 4.1% | Maritime Executive |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low, stable overall risk environment despite geopolitical and energy supply concerns.
- Regime Status: No distinct regime classification; market remains in a low-volatility, low-contagion phase.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; regional conflicts and strikes have not escalated into broader systemic risk.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 17
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East: OPEC output plunge and Hormuz Strait tensions elevate energy supply risk, driving price volatility in Brent crude.
- Russia: Persistent drone attacks and nuclear site security concerns maintain baseline geopolitical tension without triggering market shocks.
- North America: Rising natural gas forward prices reflect winter supply concerns, but storage levels remain stable.
- Europe: Social tensions and strikes add localized risk but limited spillover to energy markets.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €48.61/MWh | -0.59% |
| VIX | 21.51 points | +6.11 points |
| Brent Crude | $92.78/bbl | -2.71% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 41.80% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- EERI vs Brent Crude: Elevated energy risk (EERI Locked — free account) contrasts with Brent’s Locked — free account price decline, indicating market skepticism about sustained supply disruption.
- VIX vs GERI: VIX up 6.1% while GERI unchanged suggests volatility driven more by event uncertainty than actual geopolitical escalation.
- TTF Gas vs EU Storage: Slight gas price dip despite stable storage indicates market pricing in mild demand or weather risk moderation.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite a low overall risk tone, the energy market is navigating a complex overlay of geopolitical and supply-side pressures. The sharp rise in energy event risk (EERI Locked — free account) driven by OPEC output declines and Hormuz Strait tensions contrasts with a pullback in Brent crude prices, reflecting market skepticism about the durability of supply constraints. Elevated volatility (VIX Locked — free account) signals investor caution amid persistent geopolitical flashpoints, notably in Russia and the Middle East. Stable European gas storage and mild winter risk temper immediate price pressures in gas markets, but rising North American forward prices highlight regional supply concerns. The low probability of regime transition suggests markets are currently pricing in contained risk, yet the watchlist indicators warrant close monitoring for potential escalation that could trigger a supply shock and volatility surge. Traders should maintain flexible hedges and monitor OPEC and Hormuz developments closely to adjust exposure dynamically.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -2.60% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.59% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 17. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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