GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
21 / 100
MODERATE1 day 6 · 7 day 5
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 21 | Energy Risk Jun 2 — June 02, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 21 (MODERATE) on 2026-06-01. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 21; 1-day change: 6.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-06-01.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€47.88/MWh
+2.20%
Source date: 2026-06-01
VIX
16.05 points
+0.73 points
Source date: 2026-06-01
Brent Crude
$95.02/bbl
+2.08%
Source date: 2026-06-01
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
-0.23%
Source date: 2026-06-01
EU Gas Storage
40.80%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-06-01
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC+ warned of lasting consequences of the Strait of Hormuz blockade - Українські Національні Новини (УНН) | 5 | 33.2% | ADNOC & UAE Energy |
| Crude Surges on Iran Tensions | 5 | 25.8% | Rigzone |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Risk Tone: Low overall, despite heightened geopolitical tensions.
- Regime: Transitional; no definitive regime classification yet.
- Contagion Status: Regional contagion from Middle East conflicts to Europe and Asia energy markets, moderate spillover observed.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 21
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: War and supply disruption alerts in the Middle East are pushing European energy risk higher, seen in a +0.3% increase in EU gas storage and slight EUR/USD depreciation (-0.23%).
- Middle East → Asia: Strait of Hormuz blockade risk has prompted urgent statements from Japan, increasing Asian risk aversion and impacting LNG flows.
- Europe → Global: Rising European risk indices and commodity price moves suggest moderate contagion into global markets, especially utilities.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €47.88/MWh | +2.20% |
| VIX | 16.05 points | +0.73 points |
| Brent Crude | $95.02/bbl | +2.08% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | -0.23% |
| EU Gas Storage | 40.80% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing:
- Brent crude price up Locked — free account aligns with sharp EERI increase (Locked — free account), indicating market is pricing in supply disruption risk adequately.
- TTF gas price rise (+2.20%) matches moderate European risk increase, no significant divergence.
- VIX increase (+0.73) is modest compared to geopolitical alert severity, suggesting some risk underpricing in equity volatility.
- EUR/USD decline (-0.23%) consistent with risk-off sentiment in Europe.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS: PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION: EnergyRiskIQ Analyst Note
The sharp rise in the European Energy Risk Index driven by Middle East conflict and supply disruption alerts signals a critical juncture for energy markets. While the overall risk tone remains low, the elevated EERI and EGSI-M indices underscore the fragility of supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude and TTF gas price increases reflect market sensitivity to these geopolitical risks. The probability of transitioning into a moderate risk regime is nearly Locked — free account, with a non-negligible chance of high-risk escalation if diplomatic efforts fail. Traders should prioritize monitoring key geopolitical developments and adjust exposures accordingly, emphasizing flexibility and hedging in energy and related sectors.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +2.30% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.20% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 21. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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