GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
15 / 100
LOW1 day 0 · 7 day 1
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
The Iran War’s: GERI 15 | Energy Risk Jun 1 — June 01, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 15 (LOW) on 2026-05-31. The brief covers 11 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 15; 1-day change: 0.
- 11 alerts considered from 2026-05-31.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€46.85/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-29
VIX
15.32 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-29
Brent Crude
$92.88/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-29
EUR/USD
1.1544 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-05-29
EU Gas Storage
40.50%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-05-31
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Iran War’s First 90 Days Upended Energy Markets | 5 | 32.2% | OilPrice.com |
| U.S. Forces Disable Commercial Vessel, Showing Iran Blockade Still Active Despite Peace Talks | 5 | 15.5% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Low risk environment sustained; no regime shift detected (GERI steady at 15).
- Contagion Status: Minimal contagion; EERI dropped sharply by Locked — free account points to Locked — free account, indicating reduced cross-regional risk spillover despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- EGSI-M: Slightly elevated at Locked — free account, reflecting ongoing Middle East conflict stress without broad market panic.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 15
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East to Global: Strong local conflict signals (Iran war, shipping threats) continue to pressure oil markets but have not triggered broader global contagion.
- Asia: China’s patrols near Scarborough Shoal add regional maritime tension, but no immediate energy market impact detected.
- Europe: Ukraine-Russia conflict remains active with targeted energy infrastructure attacks, but limited spillover to global energy prices so far.
- Conclusion: Risk remains regionally concentrated with low probability (<20%) of immediate global contagion escalation.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €46.85/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.32 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $92.88/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1544 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 40.50% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Brent crude’s near Locked — free account rise aligns with elevated Middle East risk (EGSI-M Locked — free account), indicating market is pricing in conflict risk appropriately.
- Volatility Index (VIX) decline despite geopolitical alerts suggests market complacency or confidence in conflict containment.
- TTF gas rise (+1.85%) outpaces storage growth (+0.40%), signaling tightness or supply concerns in European gas markets despite storage buffer.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market remains underpinned by Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict and associated maritime security threats. While these factors keep Brent crude elevated near $Locked — free account, the broader global energy risk environment remains contained, as evidenced by stable GERI and declining EERI. European gas markets show tightness with prices rising faster than storage builds, signaling supply concerns amid ongoing Ukraine conflict. Market volatility remains subdued, reflecting investor confidence in conflict containment or risk hedging. Traders should monitor shipping lane security and conflict escalation signals closely, as these will dictate short-term price volatility and risk regime shifts. Hedging strategies in energy commodities are prudent given the Locked — free account-Locked — free account probability of risk escalation over the next fortnight.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +0.97% between recorded quotes; TTF +1.85% between recorded quotes; GERI 15 → 15. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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