GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
40 / 100
MODERATE1 day 0 · 7 day 8
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Hormuz: GERI 40 | Energy Risk Jul 18 — July 18, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 40 (MODERATE) on 2026-07-17. The brief covers 20 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 40; 1-day change: 0.
- 20 alerts considered from 2026-07-17.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€57.49/MWh
+2.97%
Source date: 2026-07-17
VIX
18.77 points
+2.04 points
Source date: 2026-07-17
Brent Crude
$88.10/bbl
+3.82%
Source date: 2026-07-17
EUR/USD
1.1446 USD/EUR
-0.21%
Source date: 2026-07-17
EU Gas Storage
53.40%
+0.30 pp
Source date: 2026-07-17
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz blockade risks reignite upward pressure on Crude Oil prices | 5 | 53.9% | Hellenic Shipping News — Oil & Energy |
| Europe gas prices jump to 4-month highs on Hormuz blockade threat | 5 | 74.8% | Hellenic Shipping News — Oil & Energy |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Regime: Moderate risk, elevated geopolitical tension centered on Middle East (Hormuz Strait) with active military exchanges.
- Contagion Status: High contagion potential from Middle East to European gas markets and global oil prices due to supply route vulnerabilities and export restrictions.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 40
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Europe: Direct spillover via natural gas prices, with TTF gas rising +2.97% to 57.49 €/MWh amid fears of supply interruptions through Hormuz.
- Middle East → Global Oil Markets: Brent crude up +3.82% to $88.1/bbl, reflecting risk premium from potential Gulf flow disruptions and conflict escalation.
- Europe → Global: Diesel market tightening due to Russian export ban and Ukraine strikes compounds energy security concerns, intensifying price pressures beyond regional borders.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €57.49/MWh | +2.97% |
| VIX | 18.77 points | +2.04 points |
| Brent Crude | $88.10/bbl | +3.82% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1446 USD/EUR | -0.21% |
| EU Gas Storage | 53.40% | +0.30 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: EERI jumped Locked — free account, signaling a sharp rise in event risk, but Brent crude’s Locked — free account increase suggests partial but not full risk premium incorporation.
- Gas Storage vs Price: EU gas storage marginally up +0.30%, contrasting with a near 3% price surge, indicating market pricing in supply disruption risk beyond current physical buffer.
- VIX vs EUR/USD: Modest VIX rise (+2.04%) contrasts with a mild EUR/USD decline (-0.21%), showing cautious risk-off positioning but no full flight-to-safety move yet.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS WITH DRIVER ATTRIBUTION
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
The energy market is currently navigating a complex risk environment dominated by Middle East geopolitical friction, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp rise in energy event risk (EERI Locked — free account) underscores the market’s sensitivity to potential supply disruptions. Brent crude’s near Locked — free account gain and TTF gas’s Locked — free account increase reflect a risk premium being priced in, though market pricing has not yet fully captured the upper bound of potential supply shocks. European gas storage levels provide limited relief, heightening vulnerability to further price spikes. The probability of escalation to a full blockade or wider conflict remains material (~Locked — free account-Locked — free account), justifying a cautious stance with hedges on energy price volatility. Conversely, a de-escalation remains plausible but less likely in the near term. Traders should monitor military and diplomatic developments closely and adjust exposure dynamically to the evolving risk landscape.
Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT +3.84% between recorded quotes; TTF +2.97% between recorded quotes; GERI 40 → 40. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
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