GERI
Global Energy Risk Index
19 / 100
LOW1 day 2 · 7 day -4
Daily Geo-Energy Intelligence · Archive issue
Cargo Ship Reports: GERI 19 | Energy Risk Jul 6 — July 06, 2026
Bottom line. Global Energy Risk Index (GERI) is 19 (LOW) on 2026-07-05. The brief covers 13 detected alerts; market observations and headlines describe different parts of energy risk.
You’re reading yesterday’s intelligence. EnergyRiskIQ users saw these signals 24h earlier.
01 / Briefing
Key takeaways
- GERI: 19; 1-day change: 2.
- 13 alerts considered from 2026-07-05.
- Public intelligence is delayed by 24 hours; 5 market series are available.
02 / Indices
Three lenses on energy risk
GERI is public with a 24-hour delay. Regional index values are account-only; methodology stays open.
EERI
European Energy Risk Index
Locked index valueUnlock with free accountEGSI-M
Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission
Locked index valueUnlock with free account03 / Market reaction
What markets priced
Daily snapshots with source dates. TTF is quoted in €/MWh; closed-market labels are shown as supplied.
TTF Gas
€45.06/MWh
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-03
VIX
15.81 points
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-02
Brent Crude
$71.69/bbl
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-03
EUR/USD
1.1440 USD/EUR
Markets closed
Source date: 2026-07-03
EU Gas Storage
50.40%
+0.40 pp
Source date: 2026-07-05
04 / Event watch
Top risk events
Severity indicates potential impact; confidence indicates certainty in the signal.
| Event / region / detected | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo Ship Reports Attack Off Yemen, Adding To Red Sea Risks - gCaptain | 5 | 18.1% | Saudi Aramco & Saudi Oil |
| Cargo Ship Reports Attack Off Yemen, Adding To Red Sea Risks | 5 | 10.9% | gCaptain Maritime |
05 / Analysis
Executive intelligence brief
Automated algorithm-generated analysis based on the stored signals. It is not presented as human-reviewed.
1. EXECUTIVE RISK SNAPSHOT
- Current Regime: Low risk environment sustained despite Middle East tensions.
- Contagion Status: Limited contagion; regional conflict risks contained with minimal spillover to global energy markets.
2. FULL INDEX DECOMPOSITION
- GERI (Global Energy Risk Index): 19
- EERI (European Energy Risk Index): Locked — free account
- EGSI-M (Europe Gas Stress Index — Market/Transmission): Locked — free account
Only recorded observations are displayed; missing index history is not reconstructed from AI prose.
3. MULTI-REGION SPILLOVER ANALYSIS
- Middle East → Asia: War-related supply disruptions in Middle East previously pressured Asian gas markets; easing curbs in India indicate reduced spillover risk.
- Middle East → Europe: Ukraine energy strikes increase European risk, but net EERI decline suggests localized impact without broad contagion.
- Asia → Global: Removal of emergency gas curbs and increased LNG availability dampens global supply concerns.
4. CROSS-ASSET SENSITIVITY DASHBOARD
| Market | Recorded quote | Session status / move |
|---|---|---|
| TTF Gas | €45.06/MWh | Markets closed |
| VIX | 15.81 points | Markets closed |
| Brent Crude | $71.69/bbl | Markets closed |
| EUR/USD | 1.1440 USD/EUR | Markets closed |
| EU Gas Storage | 50.40% | +0.40 pp |
Measured cross-asset correlations and sensitivities were not supplied for this archived brief.
5. DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS
- Risk Signal vs Market Pricing: Despite Middle East war alerts, Brent crude prices remain near pre-conflict levels, indicating market confidence in OPEC+ supply adjustments and limited escalation.
- Gas prices and storage: TTF gas decline alongside rising EU storage signals market pricing ahead of risk signals, reflecting improved fundamentals over headline risks.
6. REGIME CLASSIFICATION + TRANSITION PROBABILITY
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7. SECTOR IMPACT FORECAST
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8. PROBABILITY FORECASTS
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9. SCENARIO FORECASTS
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10. CUSTOM WATCHLIST
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11. STRATEGIC INTERPRETATION
Despite headline risks from Middle East maritime attacks and regional conflicts, market pricing reflects confidence in supply resilience supported by OPEC+ production increases and easing Asian gas constraints. The slight rise in GERI signals caution but is offset by declining European risk and improving storage fundamentals. Traders should remain vigilant for escalation in Red Sea security incidents, which could rapidly shift the regime to medium risk and trigger price volatility. Current conditions favor stable energy exposure with selective focus on LNG and storage sectors benefiting from supply normalization.
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Informational only. Not financial advice.
06 / Calibration
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. what happened
Yesterday’s call vs. recorded observations (retrospective)
Scenario: No numeric scenario call was stored · Probability:
Observed outcome: BRENT -0.60% between recorded quotes; TTF -0.60% between recorded quotes; GERI 17 → 19. These observations do not establish whether the scenario occurred or predictive skill.
07 / Access
Public digest vs. account access
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| Access | Public Digest | EnergyRiskIQ Account | Daily Intelligence Report |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery timing | Public issue is 24h delayed. | Full core dashboards and scenarios. Timing varies by product; real-time features depend on subscription. | Account-managed paid product. Availability and delivery depend on the account subscription. |
| GERI / EERI / EGSI-M | GERI public reading; EERI and EGSI-M values are locked. | Core index dashboards are available with an account. | Access depends on the account subscription. |
| Real-time alerts | A snapshot, not a continuous alert feed. | Availability depends on product subscription. | Availability depends on product subscription. |
| Full scenarios & probabilities | Selected executive-brief sections are locked. | Available with an account. | Available according to product access. |
| Archive access | Public daily issues. | Core archive access. | Subject to account subscription. |
| Access action | Create free account | Create free account | Explore report in your account |
A free account provides core dashboards and scenarios; it does not automatically include every real-time feature.
08 / Method
Evidence, method and limits
Currently monitored sources: 41 (directory snapshot; historical issue coverage was not recorded).
The digest is produced by an automated algorithm that processes stored risk indicators, market observations and event signals. The public version is delayed 24 hours; no human review is claimed here.
GERI methodology: Global Energy Risk Index. Related methods: European Energy Risk Index (EERI) and Europe Gas Stress Index – Market (EGSI-M).
Interpretation, not advice.
Index readings and scenarios are analytical signals, not investment, trading or risk-management advice. Data availability and reporting times vary by source and market schedule.
A severity 5/5 headline measures potential event impact, not the aggregate index. Low GERI can coexist with severe, low-confidence alerts; it does not prove that markets have priced the event in. Closed-market quotes are not evidence of a muted reaction.
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